Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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143 FXUS64 KMOB 161814 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 114 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA will continue to spread across the region through the afternoon, with the greatest coverage impacting central and southern portions of the CWA. The heavier bands of convection will contain reductions to MVFR (or very briefly IFR) conditions with heavy rainfall and wind gusts up to around 30 kt. Convective coverage should diminish this evening and overnight before the next round of scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA develops again by mid to late Monday morning. /21 && .NEAR TERM... (Now through Monday) Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 The summer rainy season is about to kick it off this week as a rather active pattern sets up as early as this morning. The high pressure that has given us the heat and drier conditions this week will quickly translate east into the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a series of inverted troughs will work their way around the northern periphery of a larger gyre centered over central America. This semi-persistent feature is know as the Central American Gyre and typically set up around this time of year and can be the spawning grounds for some early season tropical mischief. The good news is for our area that while a few weak systems could be possible in the coming weeks there are no signs that any of these areas of interest will impact us directly. The bad news is that we will be in a bit of a funnel of deep Gulf moisture that will setup between the Gyre and the large upper ridge to our east. In this channel of moisture, PWATS will range from 2 inches to as high as 2.5 inches or more. With this sort of moisture and pattern in place, its almost always a good bet on a rather soggy week. Rain chances will begin this morning and only increase through the period. Current radar shows showers already developing over the marine waters and those are only expected to expand in coverage later this morning as they approach the coast. The best rain chances today will be along the coast and then expanding across southwestern Alabama and into southeastern Mississippi. Areas more east of I-65 will still see rain but could be more scattered in nature given the proximity to the upper ridge. Rain chances relax during the overnight hours as the first wave pushes through. By Monday the next wave will enter the area bringing widely scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for rain will continue to be across southeastern Mississippi into coastal southwestern Alabama where better low level convergence will be present. The biggest issue will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall given the rather deep tropical moisture. Storms will be highly efficient in producing heavy rainfall; however, nebulous forcing, dry antecedent conditions and no true low level focus for storms will likely keep any flooding localized at least for now. While some localized flooding cannot be ruled out, it will likely be confined to poor drainage areas and urban zones. Along with the increased rain chances, waves will be on the general increase leading to a HIGH risk of rip currents beginning today and eventually large breaking waves at the beaches leading to a high surf advisory. BB/03 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for ALZ265-266. High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ202-204- 206. High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob