582
FXUS64 KMOB 151743
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1243 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A quasi-stationary front will be draped west to east near the
central Gulf coast in the near term. Aloft, a low pressure system
was positioned over the Mid-South. The combination of the deep
layer low pressure system favors an unsettled weather pattern for
the remainder of the day and into tonight with scattered to
perhaps numerous shra/tsra. In and near shra/tsra, cigs range MVFR
categories and perhaps briefly down to IFR levels. Vsby briefly
reduced to MVFR/IFR in and near convection along with brief
convective wind gusts. Lowest vsby in the range will come from
higher intensity RA. /10

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday Night)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

15.12Z upper air analysis shows a west northwest flow pattern at
high levels over the central Gulf coast, southwest of a H20/H30
upper low over the central Appalachians. Within the westerlies
aloft, a series of jet streak maxima (ranging 70-90kts) was
analyzed within the southern stream. Working down into the
mid/lower levels, forecasters see a complex low pressure system
situated from the Mid-South to southwest MS, with a few trough
axis spokes extending out from the low which are providing a focus
for ascent within a moist and modestly unstable local environment
characterized by SB Capes ranging 1000-2000 J/KG. A look at
15.12Z pwat values along the central Gulf shows highest values =>
1.87" (LIX) being right near 1 standard deviation above the
climatological means for mid September. At the surface, a quasi-
stationary front was draped west to east across the central Gulf
coast. Along the boundary, a wave of frontal low pressure was
analyzed along the MS Sound. Radar shows returns lifting
northward over the interior in response to the more southerly
component in layer flow east of the low/mid level low pressure
system, while returns near and south of the coast are tracking
more eastward along and south of the surface front. Considering
the players mentioned to enhance forced ascent, environmental
instability and sufficient deep layer moisture, showers and storms
are forecast to trend higher in areal coverage through the
remainder of the day. The weakened state of bulk shear values at
this time, suggest that storms will remain sub-severe. The main
threats in storms today look to being efficient, locally heavy
rain rates and perhaps instances of flooding in those areas
subject to poor drainage where storms move over/or slowly across
the same areas. It is difficult to nail down just where the
heaviest rain axis develops as convection is just beginning. But
moving forward, forecasters anticipate a general area of excessive
rain/slight risk of localized flooding to be aligned along and
west of a line from Butler to Grove Hill to Atmore AL to Ft.
Walton Beach FL through tonight. Mobile and Baldwin Co`s may see
an increased threat of flooding rains.

The unsettled weather, with chance to likely PoPs, looks to
persist into Monday. This due to the front still mostly
stationary near the coast and the base of the upper low/trough
over the central Gulf coast favoring the eastward passage of mid-
level impulses to aid in convective initiation in a persistently
sufficient deep layer moist environment and daily instability.
Instances of excessive rains/isolated flooding cannot be ruled out
with a marginal risk of occurrence outlooked from the lower MS
River Valley to the MS Gulf coast, eastward to the western FL
Panhandle. Appears the chances of showers and storms begin to
taper off from north to south Monday night as the coastal front
begins to ease more to the southeast.

Lows in the mid 60s up along the US Hwy 84 corridor to the upper
60s/lower 70s southward to the coast. Highs on Monday 78 to 82
interior will be some 5 to 9 degrees below climo normals for mid
September. Lower half of the 80`s coast will be a few degrees
below normal. /10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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