813
FXUS64 KMOB 181741
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1241 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

VFR generally prevails this afternoon, though a few broken MVFR
ceilings could briefly impact coastal locations over the next 1-2
hours. Easterly winds will remain elevated between 10-15 knots
over inland locations and between 15-20 knots near the coast.
Winds may gust up to around 25 kt at times near the coast this
afternoon. /21

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Well the forecast has certainly trended drier the next couple of
days as the upper ridge over the western Atlantic noses into the
area. The reason for the stronger than originally advertised ridge
is the presence of Potential Tropical Storm one over the Bay of
Campeche/southwestern Gulf. While this system will likely drift
westward into Mexico over the next couple of days, the heat
released from this storm is aiding in strengthening the ridge of
high pressure. Kinda like a car exhaust on a car engine. As a
result, the ridge promotes more subsidence and slightly drier
conditions the next 48 hours. The only rain chances today and
tomorrow will likely be confined to the immediate coastline where
moisture will be rich enough and the influences of the ridge will
not be as strong. Otherwise, most of the area is expected to be
dry the next 48 hours. However, PTC one will have an impact on
area beaches as waves will be on the general increase leading to a
HIGH risk of rip currents and large breaking waves at the beaches
leading to a high surf advisory. BB/03

SHORT and LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 421 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

An elongated upper ridge extending from the western Atlantic to
the southern Great Plains will slowly sag southward through Friday
night, and then retrograde westward over the weekend with upper
troughing advancing eastward over the northern Great Plains and
Great Lakes regions. Much of the precipitation will stay out over
the Gulf through Friday, but we do expect isolated to low-end
scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon in
association with the sea-breeze boundary pushing inland with the
best chances remaining across our coastal zones. Rain chances look
to increase over the weekend (20-40%) and especially on Monday
(60%) due to increasing weakness aloft as the upper ridge
retrogrades westward.

Daily highs will stay warm in the lower to middle 90s through
Friday, pushing into the middle to upper 90s (about 3-7 degrees
above normal) over the weekend into early next week. Overnight
lows remain toasty with generally lower to middle 70s expected. A
High Risk of rip currents will remain in effect through at least
Friday. Surf heights will remain around 5 to 7 feet during this
period. /22

For the tropics, there`s a couple areas of interest to watch over
the next week. The first is in association with PTC1 in the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This system will remain well to our
southwest and the only impacts from it will continue to be
increased surf heights through Thursday and rip currents through
late week into the weekend. Late week into the weekend models
continue to be divergent on their solutions for the southwest
Atlantic system. The good news is it appears the system is further
east than anticipated initially, which means the odds of it
staying well east of the forecast area are increasing. MM/25



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  89  73  91  73  93  71  94 /  10  30  10  20  20  20  10  30
Pensacola   77  91  75  91  76  91  75  93 /  10  20  20  30  20  30  20  40
Destin      78  91  76  91  77  91  77  92 /  10  20  20  30  30  30  20  40
Evergreen   70  91  68  91  69  93  69  97 /   0   0   0  10   0  20  10  30
Waynesboro  71  91  70  91  69  94  69  97 /   0  10   0  10   0  10   0  20
Camden      71  89  69  90  69  93  69  96 /   0   0   0   0   0  10   0  20
Crestview   71  93  70  93  70  95  70  97 /  10  10   0  20  10  30  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ631-632.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

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