224
FXUS64 KMOB 161809
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
109 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Very similar to that of Sunday 15.18Z, today shows quasi-
stationary front still draped west to east near the central Gulf
coast. A trough of low pressure at higher altitudes has settled a
bit south and is positioned over southern AR/northern LA. With the
combination of the front near the coast and the trough position,
shra/tsra are favored to increased in areal coverage thru 17.00Z.
In and near shra/tsra, cigs range MVFR categories and perhaps
briefly down to IFR levels. Vsby briefly reduced to MVFR/IFR in
and near convection along with brief strong convective wind gusts.
Lowest vsby in the range will come from higher intensity RA. /10

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

16.12Z upper air analysis shows a broad upper trough (H20/H30) positioned
east of the MS River Valley, of which the base of said trough is
atop the central Gulf coast. This favors the east/southeastward
translation of high altitude impulses to aid in forced ascent. To
our west, short wave upper ridge is developing from the Rio-
Grande Valley northward thru TX with the strongest jet streak in
the southern stream aligned over the four corners of the Desert
southwest at the base of sharper upper trough sliding east into
the western CONUS. In the mid to lower levels, the pattern remains
quite similar to that from Sunday 09/15. A trough of low pressure
has settled a bit south and is positioned over southern
AR/northern LA. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front remains
draped west to east near the central Gulf coast. The gradient of
deep moisture is aligned northwest to southeast, right over the
heart of the forecast area with lower values 1.6 to 1.8 inches
positioned from LA to central AL to 1.8 to 2.0" aligned over
southwest AL and points east. Modestly unstable local environment
is characterized by SB Capes ranging 1500-2500 J/KG over southeast
MS to southwest AL and expect the environment to continue to
destabilize as we go into the afternoon especially in areas where
there are breaks in the overcast and better solar insolation.
Considering the front/upper level troughing in place, sufficient
deep layer moisture and instability, showers and storms are
anticipated to increase in areal coverage through the remainder of
the day. The weakened state of bulk shear values at this time,
suggest that storms will remain sub-severe. The main threats in
storms today look to continue to be the high efficiency of rain
rate processes resulting in potential of isolated, flooding in
those areas subject to poor drainage where storms move over/or
slowly across the same areas. It is difficult to nail down where
the heavier rain areas will set up but the entire area is favored
for at least a marginal risk of excessive, flooding rain.

Coverage is forecast to become more scattered tonight. With the
quasi-stationary front lingering across southern LA and just off
the AL/western FL Gulf coast Tuesday, the latest forecast calls
for a 30-50% PoP generally along and south of the US Hwy 84
corridor with the higher PoPs in the range expected to be more
focused near the coast. The front sinks southward out over the
Gulf Tuesday night and takes with it the better rain chances which
will become more aligned out over the coastal waters then.

Lows this period reflect the mid 60s up along the US Hwy 84
corridor to the upper 60s/lower 70s southward to the coast. Highs
in the mid 80s expected Tuesday. /10

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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