Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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009 FXUS64 KMOB 280825 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 325 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Tonight) Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 High pressure will build across the area in the wake of a cold front that currently remains draped along the I-10 corridor. This front is expected to drift further south through the day, before stalling just off the coast later this evening. A broad upper trough encompassing much of the eastern CONUS will keep a northwesterly flow pattern aloft. After a seasonably mild morning, with lows in the mid to upper 60s, temps will warm quite a bit during the day as mostly clear skies allow for an abundance of heating. Thus, expect highs to climb into the lower to mid 90s this afternoon. Fortunately, with the drier air in place, heat indices will remain below triple digits. Clear skies will persist overnight, with radiational cooling allowing lows to fall into the lower 60s across our inland zones to lower 70s along the coast. /73 && SHORT & LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 A broad upper trough will maintain its hold over the eastern CONUS through the latter half of the work week. At the surface, the cold front that stalls just south of the Gulf Coast this evening will remain in the vicinity of the forecast area. Guidance is fairly consistent on bringing several shortwaves around the base of the trough, though there are differences on the timing of the individual waves. Regardless, the combination of the weak shortwaves, weak convergence along the stalled boundary, and daytime heating will allow for diurnally driven thunderstorms each afternoon. Coverage will generally be isolated, given the weak forcing associated with these features and slightly less moisture to contend with thanks to the northerly flow. Temperatures through Thursday will be near seasonal norms, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the 60s. Friday looks to be a bit of a transition day, as the trough over the East Coast moves offshore as an amplified ridge slides eastward. The axis of this ridge moves east of the area by Friday night as another trough swings into the Mississippi Valley. Flow aloft and at the surface quickly become more southerly, with an abundance of moisture returning to the area by the weekend. Rain chances will increase on Saturday as an initial shortwave moves through the region, with another round of showers and storms expected on Sunday as a second shortwave moves through. It likely won`t be a total washout, but pinpointing exact timing for showers/storms is difficult at this time. Given the rain chances on Saturday and Sunday, temps may be slightly below normal with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the 60s to lower 70s. /73 && .MARINE... Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 A light diurnal flow pattern will persist today and again on Wednesday, with offshore flow at night becoming onshore during the day. Winds will shift to the east to southeast on Thursday and a light to moderate onshore flow is expected by the weekend. /73 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 94 69 91 69 87 68 89 70 / 10 0 20 10 20 10 20 10 Pensacola 93 72 89 72 87 71 88 73 / 0 0 10 10 10 10 20 10 Destin 90 73 88 72 87 72 88 74 / 0 0 10 0 10 10 20 10 Evergreen 93 65 90 64 87 64 90 65 / 0 0 10 10 10 10 20 10 Waynesboro 93 66 88 65 85 64 89 66 / 10 0 20 20 20 10 20 10 Camden 91 64 88 64 85 64 88 66 / 0 0 10 10 10 10 20 10 Crestview 95 65 93 65 90 64 92 66 / 0 0 10 10 10 10 20 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM CDT early this morning for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM CDT early this morning for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob