352
FXUS64 KMOB 171038
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
538 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday night)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

An active and very complicated weather pattern will persist
through Saturday afternoon as a couple more shortwaves eject
northeast from a very slow moving positive tilt trough moving
through the plains. A wake low has developed behind the initial
wave of storms overnight, and a Small Craft Advisory is now in
effect for today for all marine zones. The left over boundary
from this convection will lift northward as a warm front
throughout the day, and should provide a focus for additional
thunderstorm development across our interior areas. The pre-
storm environment in the warm sector after midday Friday south of
a northeastward moving warm front will have sufficient MLCAPE
values around 1,500 to 2,200j/kg. Deep layer shear values as high
as 50-55kts are expected by Friday evening. Large hail and
damaging wind gusts will be the main threats. The tornado threat,
while non-zero, will be mitigated due to the weak low level shear
values. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire area in
a Slight Risk for severe storms for today. Another shortwave and
associated MCS is expected to approach the area Friday this
evening. These storms could again pose a damaging wind and large
hail threat. Additional showers and storms are possible into
Saturday as the approaching cold front slowly slips through the
area.

The multiple rounds of rain on already saturated grounds will create
the risk for flooding through Saturday. WPC had a moderate risk
across northwest portions of the area with a slight risk across the
remainder of the area. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the
entire area through 1PM Saturday. A High risk of rip currents is
in effect through Sunday afternoon. /13 /22

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

The area dries out late in the weekend through the middle of next
week. Weak ridging aloft builds into the region as a trough
remains draped across the western Atlantic. This pattern results
in northerly to northwesterly flow aloft developing overhead
through early Wednesday. A surface high draped down the East Coast
eventually nudges into the region early next week and onshore
flow becomes established by Tuesday. A shortwave sliding across
the central portion of the CONUS will cause the ridge aloft to
briefly flatten toward the Gulf by mid-week. The bulk of the
showers and storms associated with this shortwave will likely
remain to our north on Wednesday and Thursday, although we can`t
rule out some isolated storms by Thursday afternoon.

Beach Note: Rip current risk remains HIGH on Sunday and eventually
falls to MODERATE late on Sunday night. The risk remains MODERATE
on Monday. RCMOS probabilities indicate that the risk should fall
to a low on Tuesday through Thursday. RCMOS guidance does indicate
a very brief bump to MODERATE is possible Tuesday afternoon for
the beaches in northwest Florida. 07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 538 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Moderate to strong southerly winds along with building seas will
occur today due to the development of a wake low. An approaching
front will bring additional showers and thunderstorms to the
marine area late tonight through Saturday. A light offshore flow
returns late in the weekend into early next week in the wake of
the front. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      83  68  82  67  88  66  90  69 /  70  80  80  20  10   0   0   0
Pensacola   83  72  80  70  86  69  88  72 /  70  60  90  30  10   0   0   0
Destin      83  73  80  71  85  71  85  72 /  60  50  80  40  20   0   0   0
Evergreen   84  68  82  65  87  64  89  64 /  80  80  90  30  10   0   0   0
Waynesboro  83  66  84  64  86  63  90  66 /  90  70  70  10  10   0   0   0
Camden      81  67  82  64  85  63  88  64 /  90  70  80  30  20   0   0   0
Crestview   85  69  81  65  88  64  90  64 /  70  60  90  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
     GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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