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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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549 FXUS64 KMOB 251808 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 108 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 108 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through Wednesday morning. Isolated SHRA/TSRA are still expected to develop near the coast this afternoon. Confidence in direct impact at KMOB/KBFM remains low but with convection potentially nearby, we maintained mention of VCTS at both terminals starting around 21Z. Any isolated convection that develops should diminish by early evening (around 01Z or so). /21 && .NEAR TERM... (Now through Wednesday) Issued at 108 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Localized patchy fog has developed early this morning and is temporarily reducing visibilities to around 3-5 statute miles in some locations areas. This fog development should quickly dissipate around sunrise. Current radar scans are also showing a few showers that have developed over the Gulf waters as a result of the land breeze circulation. As we head into the rest of the day, shortwave ridging will be in place over the Southeastern US. This ridging aloft will help keep temperatures very hot this afternoon with highs climbing into the middle and upper 90s and perhaps even to around 100 degrees in a few locations. Down at the surface, a remnant boundary is currently positioned over south central Alabama and will slowly sink south towards the Alabama and Florida state line through the afternoon before dissipating. Drier air is expected to mix down into far interior portions of south central Alabama behind the surface boundary which will help to keep heat index values in the 100-105 degree range over Wilcox, Butler, and Crenshaw Counties. South of this boundary, moisture will remain plentiful with PWATs of 1.6-1.9 inches. This moisture combined with the very hot temperatures will result humid conditions over southeast Mississippi, southwest Alabama, portions of south central Alabama (Clarke, Monroe, and Conecuh), and the Florida Panhandle. Heat index values in these areas will rise into the 108-110 degree range today, and a Heat Advisory remains in effect from 10am this morning until 7pm this evening. There is the potential for some relief this afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and storms developing along the sea- breeze and any lingering outflow boundaries. A few strong, microburst type storms will also be possible especially if storms are able to cluster together given the dry air aloft and DCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/Kg. Any convection that develops should quickly dissipate early this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Conditions tonight remain warm and humid with highs ranging from the middle 70s inland to around 80 degrees at the beaches. Rain chances will increase through the day Wednesday as a shortwave trough slides over the Southeast and deepens a longwave tough over much of the eastern US. The aforementioned surface boundary over south central Alabama continues to dissipate early Wednesday morning as another front begins to move into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Deep layer moisture quickly improves across the area on Wednesday with PWATs rising back to 2-2.3 inches area wide. This moisture combined with the sea-breeze and upper level shortwave will help to increase storm coverage through the day. A few storms on Wednesday could become strong, but overall the severe threat continues to be limited. Temperatures will still be hot on Wednesday with highs generally in the lower to middle 90s. A few areas in our far eastern zones could even see temperatures in the upper 90s where storms may not initiate until later in the afternoon. We`ll have to watch closely for the need of another Heat Advisory on Wednesday as heat index values will be nearing advisory criteria. Although, this will largely depend on the if we can reach that before storms begin to initiate. /14 SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 459 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Rain chances increase Wednesday into Thursday as a long wave trough digs across the eastern states. This will send a weak boundary southward toward the area. The boundary will stall across the area through Thursday. The combination of the boundary, along with the upper trough will bring scattered to locally numerous showers and storms both days. Coverage will peak during the afternoon and early evening hours. The higher coverage of showers and storms will keep high temps a little lower, in the low 90s. The trough moves east by Friday with weak upper ridging returning. This will maintain daily chances of scattered showers and storms with highs in the low to mid 90s. Heat index values will likely be near advisory criteria again by the weekend. /13 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>053-055-056- 059-060-261>266. FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob