173
FXUS64 KMOB 241454
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
954 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...

Issued at 954 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

A wake low from a remnant MCS moved across the region very early
this morning, resulting in winds gusting to 25 to 30 kt over the
marine area between 5-7am. This feature has moved well east of the
region and winds have returned to a generally light south to
southwest flow. Primary update to the marine forecast was to
slightly increase seas offshore this morning that resulted from
the wake low, with seas 2-3 ft. They should settle back to
generally around the 2 ft range this afternoon. The other update
was to slightly increase winds across bays and sounds with the
afternoon seabreeze...especially at the far north end of Mobile
Bay. Also nudged winds up to the 10-15 kt range across the marine
area for tonight.

For land areas, no significant changes were made to the forecast.
We will see a small chance of convection this afternoon into this
evening across the far inland forecast area. This area will be
influence by a shortwave moving in from the west later this
afternoon into this evening. As the shortwave approaches, isolated
convection could develop, especially with the presence of a
surface theta-e gradient that is present across interior SW AL.
MLCAPES will generally be in the 2000-2500 J/kg with deep layer
bulk shear of 45-50 kt. If a storm can become established, it
could become strong with gusty winds and small hail. However,
there is a substantial amount of dry air in the low to mid levels
and this could interfere in updraft growth. Any convection that
develops this afternoon could linger into the evening hours. After
that, it appears the overnight into early Saturday morning will be
mainly dry. However, there are uncertainties with the evolution of
additional MCS complexes well to our north and west. Will continue
to monitor trends and the new guidance coming in this morning.
34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 652 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024/

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Current surface observations reveal a mix of MVFR and VFR
ceilings across the area. Low cloud bases are expected to lift
through this morning with VFR conditions prevailing through the
remainder of the day and into the evening. Another round of MVFR
ceilings and patchy fog is expected late tonight and early
Saturday morning. Southerly to southwesterly winds around 6-13
knots continue today with light southwesterly winds expected
tonight. /14

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 454 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 454 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that patchy fog
has developed over portions of south central Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle early this morning. This fog could become locally dense at
times over the next few hours, but should begin to dissipate around
sunrise. Current radar imagery also notes a few very light showers
over south central Alabama, but these will continue to weaken as
they move east. As we head into the rest of the day, upper level
ridging remains in place over the southwestern Gulf and southern
Mexico with the northern periphery of the ridge situated along the
Gulf Coast. A shortwave currently over southern Arkansas will
continue moving eastward and is expected to swing across northern
portions of Mississippi and Alabama this afternoon and evening.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure continues to dominate over the
Florida Peninsula with an onshore flow continuing across the local
area. The subsident pattern will keep mostly dry and warm conditions
in place for today. The exception will be a few isolated showers or
storms that may try to develop mainly over interior areas this
afternoon and evening as the shortwave progresses north of the area.
Patchy fog will be possible again late tonight and early saturday
morning over south central Alabama and portions of the Florida
Panhandle. Lows will only fall into the lower and middle 70s tonight.

Focus then turns to Saturday as the ridging begins to amplify and
another shortwave slides along its the northern periphery. Hi-res
guidance continues to indicate a complex of storms associated with
the shortwave will develop and dive southeastward across northern
Mississippi and into central Alabama Saturday morning, before moving
into portions of southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle
Saturday afternoon. The southern part of this complex could clip our
interior southwest and south central Alabama counties late Saturday
morning into the afternoon. Given that there will be plenty of
instability (MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/Kg) combined with dry mid-levels and
decent DCAPE, we could see a few strong or perhaps severe storms on
Saturday in these areas with damaging winds being the main concern.
SPC has outlooked portions of southwest and south central Alabama in
a Marginal Risk on Saturday for this potential.

Outside of any convection, it will be rather warm. High temperatures
today climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s for most inland areas
with middle 80s at the beaches. Saturday is expected to be even
warmer as the upper ridging amplifies with highs topping out in the
lower 90s and a few spots potentially hitting 94-95 degrees. A low
risk of rip currents is expected today and Saturday. /14

SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 454 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

An upper level ridge will be centered just west of the area on
Saturday with a northwesterly upper level flow. This will result
in mostly dry and warm conditions. There is a small possibility of
the remnants of an MCS moving around the ridge Saturday into
Saturday night mainly affect northeast portions of the region.
Nighttime low temperatures each night will range from the lower
70s over most of the interior (a few upper 60s possible) to the
mid and upper 70s closer to and along the coast. Daytime highs on
Sunday will in the lower 90s, except for mid 80s along the coast.
/13

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 454 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

The upper ridge breaks down and shifts eastward next week. This
will allow a weak cold front to move into the area Monday into
Tuesday. This will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms
Monday into Tuesday. This front is expected to push offshore by
midweek with a drier airmass moving into the area with rain
chances near zero Wednesday and Thursday. Little change in high
temps through the week with upper 80s and low 90s inland to upper
80s along the coast. Low temps will cool behind the front with the
drier airmass in place. Lows Tuesday night and Wednesday night
will be in the low to mid 60s inland to low 70s along the coast.
/13

MARINE...
Issued at 454 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

A mainly light onshore flow pattern will continue over the
marine area through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
Seas remain generally 2 feet or less. Winds will increase slightly
Sunday into Monday with a slight building of seas over the Gulf
waters as a cold front approaches from the north. /14

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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