225
FXUS64 KMOB 051123
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
622 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A rinse and repeat of the last few days is in store for the
forecast area today. VFR conditions this morning remain prevalent
into this evening with MVFR ceilings settling in during the
overnight hours tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will once again
occur across the area today, with increasing confidence on late
afternoon into early evening being the main timeframe for more
robust storms. Ceilings and visibility may be reduced temporarily
underneath any storms along with variable gusty winds. MM/25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 507 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 507 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Northwest flow continues to prevail across the forecast area
through Thursday. A shortwave responsible for yesterday evenings
MCS will continue to gradually move off to the east. Another more
potent shortwave exists across the ArkLaTex region this morning
and will approach the forecast area this evening into tonight. An
ongoing MCS in the ArkLaTex area will likely continue east-
southeast through today. Similar to the past few days, models are
quite variable on the track and strength of this feature. Even if
the MCS fully decays, it`s possible to see this come back to life
during the day into evening given ample forcing and strong CAPE.
The main limiting factor for any well organized severe potential
remains weak deep layer shear. At a minimum anticipate the usual
afternoon into evening showers and storms across the area both
today and Thursday, with potential for heavy rainfall, frequent
lightning, and gusty winds with any storms.

Today and Thursday will feature high temperatures in the upper 80`s
to lower 90`s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60`s to lower
70`s. A Moderate risk of rip currents exists today through Thursday
before dropping back to a low risk Thursday evening.
MM/25

SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 507 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Upper low over the Great Lakes region Thursday night will drift
slightly to the east-northeast through Friday night. Resultant
upper troughing will persist along the CONUS east coast. This pattern
will allow a weak cold front to drop south across the area on
Friday, with somewhat drier air behind the front. With the
expected lower dewpoints and reduced deep layer moisture, rain
chances will generally be lower than earlier in the week. A slight
chance of showers and a few storms will be lingering near the
coast on Thursday night, but this pattern will allow a weak cold
front to drop south across the area on Friday, with a somewhat
drier surface high pressure area building in and with minimal rain
chances (mainly coastal) through Friday night. Thursday night
lows will range from the upper 60s and lower 70s inland to the mid
and upper 70s closer to and along the coast, but cool slightly on
Friday night in the wake of the front, ranging from the lower 60s
well inland to the lower 70s down toward the coast. Highs on
Friday are expected to be in the upper 80s and lower 90s across
the entire area. DS/12

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 507 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Surface high pressure and northwesterly flow flow aloft is
expected Saturday with continued low rain chances. The northwesterly
flow continues into the early part of next week, but becomes more
active with regard to shortwave energy aloft, which will bring
another cold front south across the area by Monday night into
Tuesday. As a result, rain chances increase late Sunday through
Tuesday, when scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the
forecast. Daytime highs Saturday and Sunday will mainly be in the
upper 80s and lower 90s, but some mid 90s possible over inland
areas areas on Sunday. Slightly cooler daytime highs are expected
Monday and Tuesday with the increased rain chances, ranging mainly
in the mid and upper 80s. Nighttime lows should be in the min/upper
60s to lower 70s Saturday and Sunday nights, slightly cooler in
the low to mid 60s inland and lower 70s coastal on Monday night.
DS/12

MARINE...
Issued at 507 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

No significant marine impacts expected through the weekend. A light
to occasionally moderate onshore flow prevails before becoming
westerly for Thursday and Friday. Light to moderate onshore flow
returns by Sunday. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      89  73  89  71  94  68  91  72 /  20  40  70  10  10   0  10   0
Pensacola   87  76  87  74  92  70  90  74 /  20  40  70  20  20  10  10  10
Destin      86  76  87  76  90  72  89  75 /  20  40  70  20  20  10  10  10
Evergreen   91  70  89  69  92  63  92  67 /  30  50  70  10  10   0   0  10
Waynesboro  91  69  89  68  92  63  92  68 /  60  60  60  10  10   0  10  10
Camden      90  69  87  68  89  62  90  67 /  50  60  70  10   0   0   0  10
Crestview   91  71  89  69  94  63  93  67 /  20  30  70  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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