015
FXUS64 KMOB 181146
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
646 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

The ongoing numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms,
mainly concentrated southeast of I-65, will decrease in coverage
throughout the day, but linger through much of the evening hours.
IFR to LIFR conditions will accompany the stronger storms along
with strong gusty winds, heavy rainfall reducing visibilities, and
frequent lightning. VFR to MVFR conditions are expected outside
of the convection northwest of I-65. Patchy fog is expected to
develop late tonight with widespread visibility ranging from 1 to
3 miles, but localized dense fog is possible across portions of
south central Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. /22

$$

.PUBLIC UPDATE...

We trimmed areas northwest of I-65 from the Flood Watch (FFA) as
the deeper convection associated with the ongoing numerous to
widespread showers and thunderstorms, is forecast to remain
southeast of I-65 through early this afternoon. In the FFA area,
additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches is possible, resulting
in flooding of roads. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 502 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 501 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

More heavy rain and severe storms are possible today as a weak
surface boundary continues to slowly sink southward. South of this
boundary a very unstable atmosphere remains with MLCAPE values
around 2500 J/Kg and deep layer shear values around 55 knots.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats with the
stronger storms. A brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out
especially in the vicinity of a enhanced low-level shear near the
surface boundary. The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through
Saturday morning. While the bulk of the heavier rain will move
east of the area this morning, additional development this
afternoon and evening is forecast as the upper low moves across
the Tennessee Valley. Dry conditions will follow late tonight
through Sunday as the upper level shortwave over the eastern Conus
moves off, allowing a building upper ridge over the Southern
Plains to shift east to over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. A
High rip current risk remains through the weekend.

High temperatures today will be in the upper 70s (3 to 6 degrees
below normal) along and southeast of I-65, and from 80 to 85
degrees to the northeast of I-65 where rain chances are lower.
Lows tonight will be in the mid/upper 60s inland to low 70s along
the coast, or about 3 to 6 degrees above normal. High temperatures
will rebound to near to above seasonal norms on Sunday with the
increasing upper subsidence, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
/22

SHORT and LONG TERM...
(Monday Through Friday)
Issued at 501 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Much of the work week remains dry in the wake of this weekend`s
storms. Weak ridging over the Southern Plains begins to nudge east
toward the region early in the work week. Subtle shortwaves slide
around the ridge as the trough dives deeper into the Atlantic
early next week, but these shortwaves will only act to briefly
increase cloud cover. The ridge aloft begins to flatten toward the
Gulf as we head into Thursday and Friday as a shortwave pivots
into the MidSouth and Southeast. A surface high remains draped
down through our region through Thursday, but may begin to
relegate back into the western Atlantic by Friday. That surface
high`s grasp over the local area should keep the showers and
storms (associated with the aforementioned shortwave) further to
our north on Thursday. However, the influence of the surface high
may not be strong enough to protect the local area on Friday, thus
showers and storms are possible in the afternoon hours.

Beach Note: Rip current risk remains MODERATE on Monday and
eventually falls to a LOW risk Tuesday through Friday. RCMOS
guidance does indicate a very brief bump to MODERATE is possible
Tuesday afternoon for the beaches in northwest Florida. 07/mb

MARINE...
Issued at 501 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

A light to moderate southwesterly to westerly flow prevails
through tonight, becoming light and variable early next week. A
light southerly to southeasterly flow is established Tuesday
afternoon and continues through Wednesday night. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      81  67  88  67  89  68  86  68 /  90  10  10   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   78  69  86  69  86  70  84  70 / 100  20  10   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      79  70  85  71  85  71  84  72 /  90  30  10   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   81  64  87  64  89  63  89  63 /  80  40  10   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  84  63  87  64  89  65  90  65 /  50  20   0   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      82  63  85  64  86  64  87  64 /  60  40  10   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   79  65  88  64  89  63  88  63 /  90  20  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ALZ056-059-060-
     261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MSZ078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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