Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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061 FXUS64 KMOB 252133 CCA AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 417 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Thursday) Issued at 417 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows an upper level low near the borders of Kansas/Arkansas/Tennessee/Kentucky. This upper low will continue to linger over the Middle Mississippi Valley through Thursday before eventually diving into the Deep South late Thursday night and early Friday morning. The progression of this upper low will steer Hurricane Helene into the Big Bend region of Florida as a major hurricane Thursday evening before they phase into one large upper level feature over the Southeast on Friday. Down in the lower levels, a subtle surface boundary is currently draped across southwest Alabama and southeast Mississippi. This front will continue to move through western portions of the area through this afternoon before stalling along the I-65 corridor this evening. Drier air is expected to filter into southeast Mississippi and portions of southwest Alabama behind the front with PWATs likely falling to around 1.25-1.5 inches tonight. This should help to keep mostly dry conditions in place overnight and into Thursday for these areas. Along and east of the surface front, there will be better deep layer moisture in place as Hurricane Helene lifts northward across the eastern Gulf. PWATs over south central Alabama, portions of southwest Alabama, and the northwest Florida Panhandle will range from 1.5 to 2.3 inches through Thursday. This moisture combined with the weak surface boundary may help to keep a few lingering showers and storms overnight in areas along and east of I-65. Rain chances will begin to increase again on Thursday morning in these same areas as peripheral bands from Helene move inland. With a rather tight moisture gradient in place across the area, we expect numerous to widespread showers in storms to move inland across the eastern half of the area with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible across far southwest Alabama. We will need to monitor the activity on Thursday as these showers and storms will be efficient rainfall producers which could lead to localized flood concerns especially in areas where storms repeatedly move over the same areas. Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches are anticipated across south central Alabama and northwest Florida, with locally higher totals possible. In addition to the rainfall, we will also see wind and beach hazards across parts of the area given the large extent of Hurricane Helene. We`ll go into more detail on each of these hazards below. .Wind Advisory. Winds will begin to increase as Helene approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast. A Wind Advisory remains in effect from noon Thursday to midnight Thursday night for the coastal portions of Okaloosa and Santa Rosa counties where northwesterly winds of 15 to 30 mph are anticipated with gusts up to 40 to 45 mph. We have also expanded the Wind Advisory northward and westward to include southern portions of Mobile, Baldwin, and Covington Counties in Alabama as well as the Escambia County in Florida. .Beach Hazards: Long period swell packets will approach our entire coastline late tonight and hit the beaches early Thursday morning. Therefore, a High Surf Warning is now in effect from 6 AM Thursday to 1 PM Friday for all our surf zones where large breaking waves of 6 to 11 feet are expected. Minor coastal flooding is also expected during high tide which may result in flooding of lots, parks, and low lying roads mainly along the immediate coastal sections due to the wave runup. As a result, have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for southern and central portions of Mobile and Baldwin Counties in Alabama along with coastal portions of Escambia, Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa Counties in Florida where minor coastal flooding is expected. This Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 6 AM Thursday to 1 PM CDT Friday. In addition, a High Rip Current Risk remains in effect from 9 PM CDT this evening through late Friday night. Everyone should remain out of the water due to life- threatening surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure. For Thursday night, conditions will quickly dry out from the southwest to northeast as Hurricane Helene lifts across Georgia and much drier air filters into the region. Temperatures Thursday night will be rather pleasant with lows falling into the lower 60s inland with middle and upper 60s further south. /14 && SHORT AND EXTENDED TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 417 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 The upper level low gradually weakens and lifts northeast into the Ohio Valley by early next week. A dry airmass remains through much of the area with only very isolated showers possible over the weekend. A reinforcing shot of drier air is possible late in the period. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s inland to mid and upper 90s near the coast. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 417 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Hurricane Helene is expected to strengthen to a major hurricane before reaching the Big Bend coast of Florida late Thursday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida 0-60 nm Gulf waters, the 20-60 nm portion of the Alabama waters, and eastern Choctawhatchee Bay. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the remainder of the area. Winds and seas subside by Friday. Please see the National Hurricane Center for the latest on Helene. /14 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 70 83 65 83 65 87 63 87 / 30 30 10 10 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 72 79 69 82 70 85 70 86 / 70 70 30 10 0 0 0 10 Destin 73 80 70 83 73 85 71 85 / 80 80 50 10 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 68 80 63 83 63 85 61 86 / 60 80 50 10 0 0 0 10 Waynesboro 65 82 62 81 62 84 61 84 / 20 20 10 10 10 0 0 0 Camden 66 76 62 79 63 82 60 82 / 40 60 40 20 0 0 0 0 Crestview 70 78 64 84 64 86 64 87 / 80 80 50 10 0 10 0 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Wind Advisory from noon Thursday to midnight CDT Thursday night for ALZ060-263>266. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 1 PM CDT Friday for ALZ263>266. High Rip Current Risk from 9 PM CDT this evening through late Friday night for ALZ265-266. High Surf Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 1 PM CDT Friday for ALZ265-266. FL...Wind Advisory from noon Thursday to midnight CDT Thursday night for FLZ201>206. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 1 PM CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206. High Rip Current Risk from 9 PM CDT this evening through late Friday night for FLZ202-204-206. High Surf Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 1 PM CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 1 PM CDT Friday for GMZ630>635-650. Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ636-655-670-675. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob