043
FXUS64 KMOB 232353
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
653 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with some
scattered to broken MVFR ceilings expected Friday morning. Light
southerly winds continue tonight, then light south to
southwesterly winds are expected on Friday. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 438 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 438 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Surface ridging holds firm across the area through tonight.
Currently watching a MCS moving across northern Mississippi into
northern Alabama, but CAM`s seem to be correct in that this system
will fizzle and be deflected from our area due to the strong
ridging. As such, we are generally not expecting any precipitation
for our area tonight into Friday, so the dry conditions with
partly cloudy skies will continue. Lows tonight should fall into
the upper 60s to around 70 inland to low to mid 70s along the
coast. On Friday expect another very warm day with highs in the
low to mid 80s at the coast and upper 80s (to lower 90s over
interior southeast MS) for all inland areas. DS/12

SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 438 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

A mostly dry and warm pattern will continue through most of the
weekend as upper level ridging remains centered over the Gulf
coast region. This upper level pattern will result in a mainly
zonal to at times northwesterly flow through the weekend with a
few embedded shortwaves sliding along the northern periphery of
the ridge and over northern portions of Mississippi and Alabama.
CAM`s indicate the possibility of the remnants of another MCS
possibly sliding down into our interior zones from the northwest
late Friday afternoon, and then possibly a few isolated showers or
storms again on Saturday afternoon, but PoPs will be below 20
percent and, for the most part, we expect a generally dry forecast
through the majority of the short term period. Nighttime low
temperatures each night will range from the lower 70s over most of
the interior (a few upper 60s possible) to the mid and upper 70s
closer to and along the coast. Daytime highs Saturday and Sunday
mainly in the lower 90s, except for mid 80s along the coast. DS/12

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 438 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

The pattern will begin to change early next week as more
significant rain chances enter back into the forecast. A longwave
trough will move eastward over the Midwest into the eastern US
with the base of the trough moving across our area early to mid
week. A late season front is expected to move into the region late
Monday into Tuesday, and this will bring the next chance for
showers and storms to our area. Scattered showers and storms are
expected Monday afternoon through Tuesday, then becoming more
isolated late Tuesday into Tuesday night after the front moves
through. Global guidance continues to indicate this front pushing
offshore on with drier air filtering in behind it for Tuesday
night into Thursday. Cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints are
also expected behind the front. DS/12

MARINE...
Issued at 438 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

A mainly light onshore flow pattern will continue over the marine
area through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Seas
generally 2 feet or less. Winds will increase slightly over the
weekend with a slight building of seas over the Gulf waters as
well. No significant hazards to small craft are expected through
the weekend. DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  89  74  90  73  89  74  89 /   0  10  10   0   0   0   0  10
Pensacola   73  87  75  88  75  87  77  87 /   0  10   0   0   0   0   0  10
Destin      74  84  76  86  75  86  77  86 /   0  10   0   0   0   0   0  10
Evergreen   67  89  70  93  70  92  71  92 /   0  20  10  10   0   0   0  20
Waynesboro  69  92  71  93  70  94  72  94 /  10  10  10  10   0   0  10  20
Camden      68  90  70  92  70  92  71  93 /  10  20  10  10  10   0  10  30
Crestview   67  89  69  92  69  90  71  91 /   0  20  10  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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