858
AWUS01 KWNH 242304
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-250430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0318
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
704 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Areas affected...ArkLaTex...Northeast TX...Southeast OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 242300Z - 250430Z

SUMMARY...Approaching strong-to-severe thunderstorms containing
rainfall rates 2-2.5"/hr may produce flash flooding, particularly
along the Red River and in the ArkLaTex where soils are overly
saturated and sensitive.

DISCUSSION...Severe thunderstorms have surrounded the Dallas-Fort
Worth metro area this afternoon out ahead of an approaching cold
front. These storms are taking full advantage of the dearth of
MLCAPE in place (3,000-4,000 J/kg) and PWs are expected to
increase to as high as 2" in northeast TX this evening. The
increase it partly a byproduct of additional 850mb moisture flux
ahead of the cold front. These storms also have no shortage of
vertical wind shear at their disposal with RAP mesoanalysis
showing 50-60 kts of effective bulk shear aloft, which will help
to sustain these storms as they track towards the ArkLaTex via
westerly mean 850-300mb flow aloft.

As the storms head east, they will find themselves over a region
where soils have grown more sensitive in wake of yesterday`s round
of heavy rainfall. AHPS shows within the blue circle that 7-day
rainfall totals are now 300-400% of normal for that period of time
and NASA SPoRT-LIS 0-40cm soil moisture percentiles are topping
80% for much of the pink highlighted MPD area. The excellent
vertical wind shear aloft should support supercell thunderstorms
through the early evening, and given the favorable environment for
HP supercells, these storms can be highly efficient rainfall
producers. The sufficient shear and mean westerly steering flow
should steer the storms into the ArkLaTex over the next couple
hours, but before then, flash flooding could occur as far west as
the DFW metro area in the near term. With PWs generally averaging
1.8-2.0", max rainfall rates around 2.5"/hr cannot be ruled out in
the most intense and efficient rainfall producing cells.

Mullinax

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34389653 34369463 34009313 33569281 32979296
            32209391 31899584 32469800 33779746