158
AWUS01 KWNH 261529
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-262128-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0328
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1129 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Areas affected...much of Kentucky, northern/middle Tennessee, West
Virginia, western Virginia, far southeastern Missouri, far
southern Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 261528Z - 262128Z

Summary...Flash flooding remains likely today across the
discussion area.  Eventually, heavier rainfall rates should reach
portions of the central and southern Appalachians through 21Z.

Discussion...A couple of intense convective complexes continue to
migrate west-to-est generally along and north of the
Kentucky/Tennessee border region.  Spots of 2-3 in/hr rain rates
were noted per MRMS estimates across northern portions of Middle
Tennessee over the past two hours.  Additionally, recent
intensification of a band in far southeastern Missouri has
increased rain rates into the 2 inch/hr range, with much of that
rainfall occurring across areas that received 2-3 inches of
rainfall with earlier storms.

The ongoing complexes remain on the northern extent of strong
south-southwesterly low-level flow (around 30-40 knots).  This
flow was providing convergence for intense updrafts while also
aiding in warm/moist advection and maintenance of moderate to
strong buoyancy (2000-3500 J/kg SBCAPE) along and ahead of the
complexes.  On their current track, an axis of 2-4 inch rainfall
totals (locally higher) is expected to materialize along an axis
from Paducah/Tiptonville TN eastward to London, KY.  With some of
these rainfall totals expected to fall in a 1-2 hour period and
repeating/training expected, flash flooding remains likely along
this axis.

Rainfall totals are a bit less certain downstream across the
central Appalachians.  While the central KY convective complex is
well organized, weakening low-level wind fields and slightly less
moisture/instability with eastward extent may temper rain rates
somewhat.  FFGs are still in the 1 inch/hr range, however (locally
lower), and flash flooding will remain a distinct possibility -
especially with any training convective segments that can
materialize.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38528094 38458038 38028001 37198032 36668130
            36208334 35988797 36158991 37308986 37698872
            38168557 38338231