Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
039 AWUS01 KWNH 261139 FFGMPD TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-261737- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0326 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 739 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...southern Missouri, western Kentucky, northern/middle Tennessee, northeastern Arkansas, and far southern Illinois Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 261137Z - 261737Z Summary...Intense convective complexes will repeat across the discussion area this morning, with a couple rounds of at least 1 inch/hr rainfall rates expected in several areas. Flash flooding is likely through 17Z. Discussion...A couple of intense convective clusters are ongoing across southern Missouri and far northern Arkansas currently. The most intense extends along an axis from near FAM (Farmington, MO) to near ARG (Walnut Ridge, AR). A second line extends from near AIZ (Lake Ozark, MO) to near JLN (Joplin). Each of the bands are migrating eastward and are being sustained by strong convergence on the northern extent of a ~40 kt low-level jet centered over Arkansas. Strong buoyancy and moisture (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 1.7+ inch PW values) will continue to support intense updrafts and efficient rain rates with the activity, and a couple rounds of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates are expected as convection translates eastward toward Kentucky and northern portions of Tennessee through midday. The complexes are migrating toward areas of gradually more sensitive ground conditions from prior rainfall, with FFGs as low as 1 inch/hr across Kentucky and Tennessee. The likelihood of exceedance of these FFGs should increase with eastward extent. Furthermore, model guidance sustains both warm advection and strong low-level flow ahead of the complexes into at least central Kentucky/western Tennessee where well-above normal precipitation has occurred over the past week. Flash flood potential is expected to increase through the morning hours, and could become especially pronounced where cell mergers and localized training boost rates into the 1.5+ inch/hr range. Cook ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...SGF... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38209065 37988848 38128625 37748544 36858522 36058588 35628927 35839131 36809405 37839446 38179345