199
AWUS01 KWNH 040447
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-041045-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0392
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1246 AM EDT Tue Jun 04 2024

Areas affected...Portions of Central to Southeast OK...Far
Northeast TX...Southwest AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 040445Z - 041045Z

SUMMARY...Redeveloping clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
are expected overnight. Notable concerns for cell-training will
exist, and with the moist/wet antecedent soil conditions, there
will be a likelihood for areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The larger scale pattern features a mid to
upper-level low over southeast KS with a trough axis extending
south-southwest from it down through central OK and northern TX.
Meanwhile, at the surface, an outflow boundary is noted over
north-central TX as a result of earlier convection on Monday.

Over the next several hours, an increase in a nocturnally enhanced
southwest low-level jet will be surging northeast over this
outflow boundary and up across areas of central to southeast OK
which will promote strengthening warm air advection/isentropic
ascent and into environment that has substantial elevated
instability.

00Z RAOB data from FWD and OUN shows a corridor of strong
mid-level lapse rates with enhanced elevated CAPE associated with
an EML. This instability coupled with an increase in ascent from
the strengthening low-level jet (reaching 40 to 50 kts after 06Z)
will combine with arrival of weak/subtle vort energy aloft
embedded within the northwest flow to favor redeveloping
clusters/bands of convection. The main focus for redevelopment
should be over southeast OK, but may extend as far west as central
OK, and also as far south and east as northeast TX and southwest
AR.

Sufficient levels of convective organization are expected after
06Z that a new cold pool should begin to evolve which will tend to
allow the convection to eventually lose latitude, but the
expectation is for a general northwest to southeast orientation of
the convection which will be oriented nearly parallel to the
deeper layer steering flow. Therefore, concerns will exist for
cell-training.

The high instability environment and moist low-level jet will
easily favor rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2.5"/hour. The 00Z HREF
consensus, along with recent HRRR runs and the NSSL-MPAS guidance
suggests locally as much as 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated
heavier amounts going through dawn.

Given these additional rainfall totals, and the moist/wet soil
conditions from recent heavy rainfall, areas of flash flooding
will be likely.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35519639 35249535 34769425 33829318 33259319
            33009399 33919632 34599723 35069742 35489707