231
AWUS01 KWNH 240659
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-241100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0313
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Areas affected...central and southern WV and some surrounding
portions of KY/VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240655Z - 241100Z

Summary...Hourly accumulations of 1-2" may lead to localized 3-4"
totals through dawn. Isolated to widely scattered instances of
flash flooding are possible.

Discussion...Heavy showers and thunderstorms are increasing in
coverage late tonight over portions of central WV, concerningly
orienting linearly from west-to-east in an area of apparent
localized low-level convergence near Charleston. SPC mesoanalysis
(06z) does indicate a small pocket of higher surface theta-E over
the region, which is also apparent in slightly higher low-level
lapse rates (6deg C/km) and associated SB CAPE (500-1000 J/kg).
With wet bulb zero heights of ~9k feet, warm rain processes are
clearly in control with KRLX indicating KDP values of 2-3 deg/km
(and MRMS indicating localized hourly accumulations of 1-2"). The
expectation is for this line to gradually lift to the north over
the next couple of hours, but deep layer mean flow towards the ENE
does favor some limited training/repeating with the line (along
with the core of the instability being farther south, allowing
some new cells to backbuild upstream). This may allow for
localized totals of 3-4" (as indicated intermittently by hourly
runs of the HRRR), and the 00z HREF 40-km neighborhood
probabilities for 3" exceedance are as high as 10% as well
(despite no real significant signal from any of the individual 00z
hi-res runs). Given that 3 to 6 hour FFGs generally range from
2.0-2.5", isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding
are considered possible (with particular concern for low-lying
roadways/crossings, given the terrain channeling, as well as for
any vulnerable populations within the Charleston metro area).

Churchill

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38728154 38608085 38208067 37688078 37398102
            37288189 37278257 37528298 37798313 38228264
            38558205