768
AWUS01 KWNH 160500
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-160845-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0445
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1259 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Areas affected...northeastern KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160458Z - 160845Z

Summary...Repeating and training of thunderstorms over
northeastern KS may produce localized flash flooding over the next
2-4 hours. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will be possible, although
the duration of the flash flood threat remains uncertain.

Discussion...0430Z radar imagery over northeastern KS showed a
small cluster of thunderstorms, located primarily north of I-70
with MRMS-derived peak rates of 1.00 to 1.75 in/hr. These
thunderstorms were elevated, occurring north of an outflow
boundary that extended through northeastern KS into northwestern
MO with ~1000 to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE available via the 04Z SPC
mesoanalysis. VAD wind plots showed 850 mb winds were from the SSW
at 35-40 kt with winds veered more to the SW above 850 mb. These
low level winds were overrunning the rain-cooled outflow boundary
with deeper-layer mean winds pushing individual cells off toward
the E or NE between 20-25 kt. Aloft, the region was situated
between an eastward moving upper level shortwave over far eastern
KS but ahead of an upstream shortwave near the KS/CO border with
near neutral height advection in between.

The stronger low level flow is forecast by the RAP to remain
through at least the next 3-4 hours with possible weakening to the
east and possible strengthening to the west. A focused fetch of
moisture, represented by PWATs of 1.4 to 1.7 inches over
east-central KS (SPC mesoanalysis) is likely to maintain some
degree of elevated convection over northeastern KS for another few
hours with relatively steep 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 C/km
maintaining instability across the region. Some expansion toward
the Missouri River is possible in the short term, but some minor
backbuilding toward the west into central/north-central KS may
also occur given modified propagation vectors.

Recent hires models do not have a good handle on current placement
of storms so confidence is reduced beyond 1-2 hours. However, at
least a localized flash flood threat appears probable over the
region for at least the next 2 hours, with uncertainty increasing
beyond that time frame toward 09Z.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40089810 40089667 39979535 39219540 38559668
            38639823 39099889 39669893 40029866