Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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144 AWUS01 KWNH 100405 FFGMPD COZ000-NMZ000-100804- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0416 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1204 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Areas affected...southern/eastern Colorado, far northeastern New Mexico Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 100404Z - 100804Z Summary...Slow-moving downpours continue to produce 1-2 inch/hr rain rates at times. An attendant flash flood risk should exist with this activity through at least 07Z. Discussion...Low-level upslope across eastern Colorado continues to support deep convective development along and east of the I-25 corridor across the discussion area. The upslope regime has fostered convective development that has formed nearly stationary cold pools to focus heavy rainfall for multiple hours at times. The cells are in a marginally unstable, but moist environment (~500 J/kg SBCAPE and 1.1 inch PW values). Additionally, mid-level flow was weak/negligible, resulting in slow cell movement governed mainly by propagation and development of cold pools on the mesoscale. Rain rates of 1-1.5 inch/hr have been noted with the most persistent activity, which has locally exceeded FFG thresholds at times and contributed to excessive runoff especially near Pueblo this evening. The ongoing scenario for flash flooding should continue for at least a few hours, although duration beyond about 07Z is a bit uncertain. Widespread convective overturning may result in a gradual decrease in opportunity for surface-based convection through the night, but low-level southeasterly flow (around 20 knots at 850mb) should continue to aid in forcing convective development especially along north-south oriented outflow boundaries through the night. Some degree of surface-based buoyancy may also persist ahead of the convection as well given low-level trajectories. Flash flooding should remain possible through at least 07Z in this regime. Cook ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...GLD...PUB... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 39240469 39110340 37970280 36710324 36500471 37620535 38960507