Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
282 AWUS01 KWNH 182059 FFGMPD MNZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-190257- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0461 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 458 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the Upper Midwest and Central Plains Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 182057Z - 190257Z Summary...Widespread convective initiation is underway along a slow moving cold front traversing the Central Plains. As additional convection fills in along the front, training of this activity will support scattered flash flooding going into the evening hours. Discussion...Visible satellite and regional radar imagery this afternoon depict a focused area of deep convection across the Central Plains exhibiting training along and just behind a well defined cold front. The pre-convective environment is very supportive for robust organized convection, with recent mesoanalysis and GPS estimates highlighting upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg of MUCAPE, 30-40 kts of effective shear, and 1.7-1.8" PWATS (above the 90th percentile for parts of the region) pooling ahead of the front for the emerging activity to tap into. As coverage increases along the front over the next several hours, expect the training character of these storms to continue given the parallel orientation of the shear vectors to the front combined with the slow overall movement of the boundary, with slow 10-15 kt Corfidi vectors noted. The reduced forward propagation of this emerging complex may lead to rainfall totals locally exceeding 3" per the HREF where convection can train the longest. By 0Z tonight, HREF neighborhood probabilities suggest a 40-50% chance of 3 hour FFG exceedence along the front across parts of north-central Kansas through northwest Iowa. This suggests scattered instances of flash flooding are possible going into this evening, especially atop any urban areas including Omaha and Lincoln, NE. Asherman ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...DMX...FSD...GID...GLD...ICT...MPX...OAX... TOP... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 43999503 43699411 43329372 42549381 41279465 40119655 39219814 38139963 38010028 38280062 39030017 40299905 41559791 42299700 43319632 43859578