019
AWUS01 KWNH 212257
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-220400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1038
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
656 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Areas affected...southern CO into northern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 212253Z - 220400Z

Summary...Localized flash flooding will be possible across
portions of northern NM into southern CO through 04Z due to the
potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms with brief
training. Rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1 inch in 30-60 minutes will be
possible along with localized totals of 1-2 inches.

Discussion...GOES East water vapor imagery showed a closed low
over northeastern AZ at 2230Z, tracking toward the ENE. Several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms have developed out ahead of
the closed low within a diffluent and divergent flow pattern
aloft. SPC mesoanalysis data from 22Z showed MLCAPE ranged between
500-1000 J/kg across northern NM but was less than 500 J/kg over
southern CO. At the surface, an easterly/upslope component to the
flow was present to the north of a cold front and outflow boundary
where anomalous precipitable water values remained but were
beginning to be pushed east ahead of the closed low.

While instability values are likely near their max given the time
of day, multiple rounds of thunderstorms will remain possible from
northeastern NM into southern CO as the closed low continues east,
each round carrying the potential for short term training with
possible rainfall rates as high as 0.5 to 1 inch in 30-60 minutes.
The multiple rounds could contribute to an additional 1-2 inches
of rain by 04Z, though these higher totals are likely to remain
highly localized. These storms will pose a localized flash flood
threat to the region, mainly in/near the Sangre De Cristo
Mountains and westward into adjacent terrain of north-central NM
and mainly across sensitive burn scar locations.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38590488 38460454 37300452 36820409 36310360
            35520376 35140487 35120532 35290573 35540591
            35790606 35900638 36050671 36320683 36600683
            36950663 37170628 37410576 37650552 37840541
            38120542 38500520