031
AWUS01 KWNH 271702
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-272300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0505
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
101 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Areas affected...Northern and eastern AZ...Southern UT...Western
NM...Southwestern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271700Z - 272300Z

SUMMARY...With anomalous moisture remaining in place, another day
of showers and storms, with the potential for locally heavy
amounts and areas of flash flooding, can be expected.

DISCUSSION...Morning upper air soundings from across the region
showed PWs at or near their daily maxes across the region.  With
this moisture in place, increasing instability west of the cloud
cover associated with overnight activity is supporting the
development of isolated to scattered showers and storms across
portions of eastern Arizona.  With daytime heating likely to
increase storm coverage, the general consensus of the hi-res
guidance shows storms spreading initially over the high terrain of
eastern Arizona into western New Mexico.  Neighborhood
probabilities from the 12Z HREF indicate localized accumulations
of an inch or more are likely across this area during the
afternoon.  Storms are also forecast to quickly blossom further to
the north through northern Arizona into southern Utah.
Southwesterly flow ahead of an upper trough and its associated
cold front will fortify the deeper moisture already in place
across southern Utah and western Colorado.  In addition to
orographic effects, modest upper jet dynamics are forecast to
foster ascent across this region.  With the increase in upper
level winds, storm motions throughout much of the region are
expected to be faster than previous days, however ample moisture
will likely support heavy rates, with repeating storms raising the
threat for heavy accumulations and flash flooding.  Areas most
susceptible to flash flooding include burn scars and areas of
complex terrain.

Pereira

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...SLC...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39501038 39321001 38690966 38370884 37900881
            37580921 37110946 36610892 36060812 35370779
            34900741 34120702 33550750 32650766 32910866
            33420920 34231031 34601124 35301203 36011214
            36361251 37151252 37671275 38831178 39421094