Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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074 AWUS01 KWNH 261648 FFGMPD NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-262040- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0502 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1243 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Areas affected...Northeastern IN...Northern OH...Northwestern PA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 261540Z - 262040Z SUMMARY...Training storms are expected to continue to develop over the region, with the threat for locally heavy amounts and possible flash flooding increasing during the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Mesoanalysis shows a shortwave trough associated with overnight convection moving east from the mid Mississippi Valley as a northern stream trough and its associated cold front move across the upper Great Lakes. Ahead of these features, low level west-southwesterly flow is supporting an increase in moisture in an area of enhanced ascent generated in part by right-entrance region upper jet dynamics. Radar shows convection beginning to train from northeastern Indiana into northwestern Ohio, with rates increasing along with an uptick in instability. Guidance is showing a good signal for sustained moisture advection (PWs increasing to around 1.75 inches) and ascent across northern Ohio, expanding into northwest Pennsylvania -- supporting training storms and the threat for locally heavy amounts ahead of the front. HREF neighborhood probabilities indicate that localized amounts of 2 inches or more are likely over the next few hours. Localized rainfall amounts exceeding 3-hour flash flood guidance values can be expected, especially over northeastern Ohio into northwestern Pennsylvania. Pereira ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...CTP...DTX...IWX...PBZ... ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 42098017 42077934 41637930 41108099 40978304 41108458 41248618 41738395 41498242 41608167