625
AWUS01 KWNH 011909
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-020106-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0368
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
309 PM EDT Sat Jun 01 2024

Areas affected...western Kentucky, far eastern Missouri, southern
Illinois, western Tennessee, and northeastern Mississippi

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011906Z - 020106Z

Summary...Scattered convection was producing an isolated area of
1+ inch/hr rain rates west of Paducah over the past hour.
Additional areas of brief heavy rain could develop over the next
3-6 hours that could cause isolated flash flooding.

Discussion...Scattered convection continues to deepen just ahead
of a mid-level trough axis extending from Iowa to eastern
Missouri.  These storms were forming within a gradually warming
airmass just west of a differential heating zone that generally
extends from central Illinois through western Kentucky and
portions of Tennessee.  Recently, a small convective cluster west
of Paducah, Kentucky (near Cairo, IL) interacted with this
boundary, fostering weak mesocyclogenesis in addition to localized
backbuilding and 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates.  Some concern exists
that this regime could continue across the discussion area over
the next several hours as convection continues to gradually expand
in coverage and move eastward toward the zone.

FFG thresholds in the region are generally in the 1.5+ inch/hr
range.  These thresholds should be threatened on an
isolated/spotty basis through the early evening hours across the
discussion area.  Convection is expected to be mainly diurnally
driven, with the bulk of the flash flood threat expected to
diminish with loss of boundary layer heating.  The low-level
boundary will only slowly shift eastward, and most of the flash
flood threat will be tied to convection backbuilding near this
boundary through 00Z.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...ILX...LSX...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39738977 39738891 37448794 34868791 34228897
            35258948 37668995