100
AWUS01 KWNH 140746
FFGMPD
TXZ000-141300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0681
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Areas affected...South-Central Texas...Southern Edwards Plateau...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140745Z - 141300Z

SUMMARY...Continued flash flooding risk through dawn given strong
moisture flux and slow moving/potentially training convection.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows stubborn elongated mid-level
trough axis across North Texas into the Hill Country and
eventually into the South-central Texas Rio Grande Valley.
Earlier convective complex developed an MCV currently located
along the Rio Grande just west of NW Kinney county; the outflow
boundary has kicked eastward and while generally parallel to
strengthening LLJ (15-20kts), some weak backed flow is providing
sufficient convergence along the upwind edge to develop
north-south bands of convection within the remaining 1500-2000
J/kg of MLCAPE well along the eastern hemishpere of the larger
mid-level circulation just NW of the MCV over the NE Serrania del
Burro Range.  Northward expansion of the convection is expected
given solid speed convergence into the deeper SW to NE shear axis.
 Total PWats of 2-2.25" will support efficient rainfall production
with rates of 2-3" likely; while initially narrow, broadening of
the updrafts should come with storm scale enhancement/interaction.
 The back-building, south to north training may even allow for
some narrow areas of 3-5" totals, which may spread north into
Real/Bandara counties with time and perhaps with low confidence
even toward lower FFG values in the southern Edwards Plateau/Hill
Country from Sutton to Kimble county.

Strong latent heat release into the mid-levels should support
strengthening of mid-level height-falls and tightening of the
vorticity center westward.  This should back low-level flow and
increased convergence back westward away from the southern Hill
country toward Kerr, Gillespie counties and sparing the more
sensitive areas, reducing low level convergence in that area and
therefore from potential of the strongest cells/highest rates.
However, there is enough suggestion a few showers/cells could
reach these areas and so are included at much lower confidence
toward flash flooding incidents in those areas...however, at the
cost of increased totals further west over higher FFG values/drier
soil conditions.

Gallina

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   30969928 30929856 30419837 29509896 28569904
            28199922 28019969 28190017 28890071 29440114
            30120119 30680064 30949974