363
AWUS01 KWNH 030555
FFGMPD
TXZ000-030853-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0212
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
155 AM EDT Fri May 03 2024

Areas affected...central/eastern Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030553Z - 030853Z

Summary...Brief/localized heavy rainfall could lead to a flash
flood risk in areas just east of Waco over the next couple hours.

Discussion...Convection that had formed along a dryline in
west-central Texas earlier this evening has persisted while
growing upscale into a small linear segment that now extends from
near Waco to near Temple along I-35 in central Texas currently.
The storms had been sustained primarily due to upscale growth into
a focused, propagating linear segment along the leading edge of a
mature cold pool.  These cells were producing 1-1.5 inch/hr rain
rates (estimated per MRMS), which ordinarily wouldn`t be
significant for the region.  However, parts of the area downstream
of the convection have experienced 2-5 inches of rain in the past
24 hours (and 5-10 inches over the past 72 hours), with wet local
ground conditions supporting efficient runoff and flash flood
potential.

The cluster is currently outperforming many models in terms of
longevity, and may continue to do so for a couple more hours given
its organization.  Weaker instability immediately downstream of
the convection may allow for gradual weakening over time, however,
and a more southward propagation of this cluster into greater
instability may be needed for any further persistence beyond
09-10Z.  Given the scenario and doubts about persistence of this
cluster through the night, a relatively short-duration MPD is
being issued, and the convective scenario will be re-evaluated
closer to 08Z.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32049621 31739492 30439514 30419657 30679751
            31569745 31869717