353
AWUS01 KWNH 132118
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-140230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0674
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
517 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Areas affected...Southeast AZ...West-Central to Southwest NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 132116Z - 140230Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to expand in
coverage going through the afternoon and early evening hours
across west-central to southwest NM and southeast AZ. While
isolated to scattered in coverage, flash flooding will be likely
for the more sensitive dry washes and burn scar locations,
including the Trout burn scar.

DISCUSSION...Monsoonal moisture is gradually becoming better
established across portions of the Southwest U.S., and this
moisture along with favorable instability and some northeasterly
shear will favor scattered thunderstorms going through the
remainder of the afternoon and early evening hours.

PWs overall are near normal with values of 0.75 to 1.25 inches
across the region, but SBCAPE values are on the order of 1000 to
1500+ J/kg which may tend to increase a bit further over the next
few hours given strong diurnal heating.

A belt of stronger northeasterly mid-level flow is flow is
promoting some effective bulk shear values of 20 to 30 kts, and
this coupled with the instability and localized areas of
orographic ascent/terrain enhancement is already yielding some
areas of showers and thunderstorms.

Over the next few hours, there may be some additional upscale
growth and organization of the cells as they evolve down to the
southwest across southwest NM and through southeast AZ. Rainfall
rates of 1 to 1.5 inches/hour will be possible with the stronger
storms, and while they will be rather progressive, there may be
some spotty 2+ inches totals where any cells tend to be more
focused near areas of higher terrain.

Flash flooding will be likely for the more senstive dry washes
where these thunderstorms organize, and there will be notable
concerns for the more recent burn scar locations as well for
impacts including the Trout burn scar in southwest NM which is
currently being impacted by heavy rainfall and is under a Flash
Flood Emergency.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON   34380816 34190757 33520733 32520754 31840810
            31380877 31260996 31301119 31551153 31951147
            32421077 32991027 33420993 33860945 34210887