910
AWUS01 KWNH 170302
FFGMPD
NCZ000-170900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1027
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1101 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Areas affected...Central and Eastern NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 170300Z - 170900Z

SUMMARY...The non-tropical low center along the SC/NC border
continues to facilitate an influx of deep Atlantic tropical
moisture into the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Additional areas
of flash flooding are likely overnight across central and eastern
NC, and this may include locally considerable impacts.

DISCUSSION...Low pressure continues to gradually advance
northwestward across the southern Mid-Atlantic which will continue
to drive a significant amount of deep Atlantic tropical moisture
inland. Strong moisture transport aided by an easterly low-level
jet of 30 to 40+ kts will continue to combine with a nose of
moderate instability for bands of strong convection with locally
extreme rainfall rates. The latest RAP analysis shows MLCAPE
values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg still nosing inland across parts of
southeast NC just to the northeast of a frontal occlusion, and
this should pivot gradually northward into adjacent areas of
eastern NC overnight.

Given the persistent level of low-level forcing and instability,
some of these bands of convection should maintain a fair degree of
organization over the next several hours. Given this and the pool
of deep tropical moisture concentrated over especially eastern NC,
some of the rainfall rates may still be capable of reaching 2 to
3+ inches/hour.

In fact, given the locally extreme rainfall rates and concerns for
more training convective bands, additional rainfall amounts may
reach 3 to 6 inches with isolated 8+ inch amounts just for the
overnight period. The HRRR in particular suggests notable
concentrations of heavy to extreme totals for portions of Jones,
Craven, Beaufort, Pamlico and Carteret Counties, and this region
will need to be closely monitored for considerable flash flooding
impacts.

Farther back to the west across central NC, including the
Raleigh-Durham metropolitan area, the instability drops off rather
substantially and this will yield lower rainfall rates by
comparison to areas farther east. However, there should still be
sufficient levels of moisture convergence/forcing for heavy
showers that may yield an additional 2 to 3+ inches of rain
overnight. This will likely sustain the ongoing areas of flash
flooding including persistent urban runoff concerns.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36477854 36257720 35837636 35397576 34867583
            34557655 34507730 34767796 34977890 35087986
            35798037 36387992