514
AWUS01 KWNH 220143
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-220740-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0484
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
943 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Areas affected...much of northwestern NM and surrounding portions
of AZ/CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 220140Z - 220740Z

Summary...Localized rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr (with as much as 1"
of rainfall in 15-min) will continue into the evening/overnight
hours. Widely scattered coverage of flash flooding will gradually
become isolated/localized with the loss of daytime heating.
Locally significant impacts are possible (particularly over burn
scars).

Discussion...Highly anomolous tropospheric moisture from the
broad, deep circulation of former Tropical Storm Alberto will
contribute to continued localized flash flooding across much of
northern NM this evening. The mesoscale environment is
characterized by MUCAPE of 500-2000 J/kg, precipitable water
values of 0.9-1.2 inches (between the 90th percentile and max
moving average, per ABQ sounding climatology), and effective bulk
shear of 20-40 kts (between the 75th percentile and max moving
average). Lacking a distinct forcing mechanism, convective is
expected to remain relatively disorganized, though established
cells will continue to take advantage of a rather favorable
parameter space, as anomalous shear provides the necessary tilt to
updrafts for storm longevity. Increasing CIN with the loss of
daytime heating should gradually result in a decrease of coverage
(currently widely scattered, becoming isolated/localized), but in
the meantime locally significant impacts are possible due to peak
rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr (with 15-min accumulations as high as
1"). This is especially the case over burn scars, many of which
are located within the terrain (where convection tends to focus
and anchor).

Churchill

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37720489 36280444 35550514 34730691 34240879
            35150992 36080904 36600819 37310688 37690590