383
AWUS01 KWNH 021526
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-022100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0572
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1126 AM EDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Areas affected...Pee Dee region of SC through the Tidewater region
of VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021525Z - 022100Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will gradually expand in
coverage and intensify through the afternoon ahead of a front
sagging slowly across the area. Rainfall rates at times this
afternoon will likely exceed 2"/hr, leading to 2-3" of rain with
locally higher amounts approaching 5". Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are expanding across
eastern/central North Carolina and far southern Virginia this
morning. This convection is blossoming rapidly downstream of a
slow moving, almost stationary, front which will eventually kick
east as a cold front later this afternoon. The evolution of this
front will be driven by a mid-level trough axis that will
gradually swing east, and the overlap of the accompanying height
falls with low-level convergence along the front will drive ascent
to produce numerous thunderstorms through the afternoon. The
environment into which this ascent will impinge will become
increasingly favorable for heavy rainfall as 850mb SW flow of 20
kts resupplies PWs of 2-2.2 inches and MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg
northeastward. Additionally, this low-level inflow will equal or
exceed the mean wind in the generally weakly forced environment,
suggesting additional ascent through convergence.

Rainfall rates so far this morning have been estimated to be above
2"/hr in the strongest cores, and a flash flood warning was just
issued near Emporia, VA. While general cell motions have been
modest on 0-6km mean winds of 15 kts, effective storm motions are
much slower thanks to Corfidi vectors aligned increasingly
anti-parallel to the mean flow and collapsed to just 5kts or less.
This suggests that as the afternoon progresses and storms become
more numerous, backbuilding/training of cells will become more
common, lengthening the duration of heavy rainfall across many
areas. Both the HREF and REFS suggest a moderate/high chance
(40-70%) of rainfall rates exceeding 2"/hr, and with warm cloud
depths rising to 13,000-14,000 ft, efficient warm rain processes
may produce brief 3+"/hr rates. Through training, this has the
potential (40-60% chance) of producing 2-3" of rain, with locally
as much as 5" possible.

FFG across this region is elevated (generally 3-4"/3hrs) so
exceedance probabilities arelow, peaking at just 10-20%. This
should generally limit the coverage of flash flood impacts today.
However, the intensity of these rain rates, especially where
training occurs or if they repeat across urban areas, could result
in instances of flash flooding through the afternoon.

Weiss

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON   37367652 37087614 36777590 36237548 35677540
            35207583 34687690 34277766 34027809 33937846
            34097911 34318003 34538030 34868032 35487990
            36397902 37247742