Flash Flood Guidance
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Issued by NWS
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212 AWUS01 KWNH 160812 FFGMPD MOZ000-KSZ000-161300- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0447 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 412 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Areas affected...northeastern KS into northwestern MO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 160811Z - 161300Z Summary...Repeating and training of thunderstorms are likely to maintain a flash flood threat from northeastern KS into northwestern MO, including the Kansas City metro through 13Z. Localized rainfall rates over 2 in/hr may occur. Discussion...Regional radar imagery at 0745Z showed a small cluster of convection in northeastern KS, with an apparent MCV about 10-20 miles northeast of MHK, tracking toward the ENE. VAD wind data from KTWX showed 850 mb winds near 35 kt from the SW, which continued to overrun an outflow boundary immediately south of the ongoing convection. Peak observed rainfall rates per MRMS were near 3 in/hr over southern Washington County earlier in the event and a recent Wunderground.com report showed 0.5 inches in 15 minutes in northwestern Pottawatomie County. A general eastward motion has been observed with the small MCS but Trends in radar have shown some backbuilding along its southwestern flank near I-70. The backbuilding has been a result of Corfidi vectors oriented opposite to the low level wind due to relatively weak 850-300 mb mean winds of 20-25 kt. 850 mb winds are forecast to weaken to about 20-25 kt along the northern KS/MO border through 12Z but also become perfectly aligned in direction to 850-300 mb steering flow, maintaining weak Corfidi vector orientation into the low level inflow, favoring a threat for training and backbuilding of thunderstorms. The threat is expected to translate east over the next 3-5 hours, possibly impacting the Kansas City metro later this morning. Peak rainfall rates within areas of training may surpass 2 in/hr locally. Flash flooding will remain possible from northeastern KS into far northwestern MO through about 13Z, at which point diurnal weakening of the MCS may diminish the flash flood threat. Otto ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...TOP... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 39929526 39809411 39329374 38629432 38489544 38539708 38849746 39329723 39619684 39869625