512
AWUS01 KWNH 192010
FFGMPD
NMZ000-200104-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0469
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
409 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Areas affected...South-Central New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192009Z - 200104Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are beginning to form atop the terrain in
South-Central New Mexico. A few instances of flash flooding will
remain possible this afternoon as slow-moving thunderstorm
coverage increases over the next few hours.

Discussion...Recent GOES Day Cloud Phase RGB and GLM data suggest
convective initiation is underway across portions of South-Central
New Mexico, with increasing glaciation and lightning activity
noted along the Sandia Manzano and Sacramento Mountains. A recent
storm in Southern Lincoln county with rainfall rates upwards of
.5"/hr prompted a Flash Flood Warning as the cell was nearly
stationary. This uptick in activity is in response to persistent
diurnal heating, combined with strong easterly upslope flow,
ushering in a very moist airmass with tropical origins from TS
Alberto to the south.

Owing to the strong heating and continued moistening across the
region, recent mesoanalysis and GPS estimates depict 1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE and 0.8-1.0" PWAT values just downstream from the
convection--around the 90th percentile for the region. 30-40 kts
of effective shear organized in a veering profile are noted just
downstream of the activity as well, which will support some
multicells and even supercells with very slow forecast storm
motions (varying from 5-15 kts).

As additional slow-moving storms form over the next several hours,
the 12Z HREF neighborhood probabilities suggest an increasing
chance of 5-10 year ARI exceedences within the highlighted area
(50% and 35%, respectively) through 0Z. This translates to
localized rainfall amounts of 2-3" where convection sits the
longest, which could continue the risk for scattered flash
flooding risk as a result.

Asherman

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35750564 35510430 34350428 33790446 32300505
            32310578 33510607 34880628