600
AWUS01 KWNH 142024
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-150222-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0438
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
423 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the Central and Southern High
Plains...including the Front Range

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 142022Z - 150222Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to organize and
expand in coverage over the next several hours across portions of
the central and southern High Plains, including the Front Range.
Isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding will be
possible.

DISCUSSION...The GOES WV satellite imagery shows a well-defined
and rather strong mid-level shortwave trough and associated closed
low ejecting northeast out of the Southwest and into the central
Rockies. This energy is fostering strong upper-level divergence
downstream across portions of the central and southern High Plains
which is also encouraging a strengthening of low-level southerly
flow and the pooling of a more concentrated north/south axis of
instability and moisture convergence.

MLCAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/kg are pooled up across the High Plains
in a north/south fashion from southeast WY down through much of
eastern CO and northeast NM. A southerly low-level jet of 20 to 30
kts is in place and there is also proximity of a quasi-stationary
front draped from near the OK Panhandle northwestward through
southeast CO and then north up along the Front Range.

Already there are numerous clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms developing near the Sangre De Cristo Mountains and
adjacent areas of northeast NM and southeast CO, with additional
clusters of convection noted farther north near the Front Range
and out across parts of southeast WY and southwest NE.

As the stronger shortwave energy/height falls upstream begin to
overspread the region, there should be a more organized and
expansive threat of convection across the High Plains heading
through the evening hours. This will be characterized by supercell
convection evolving and locally consolidating into multiple MCS
clusters before then advancing off to the east.

Expecting rainfall rates with the stronger storms to reach 1 to 2
inches/hour, with some localized storm totals reaching 2 to 4+
inches where any cell-mergers and repeating cell-activity occurs.
This may result in some isolated to widely scattered instances of
flash flooding heading into the evening hours.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...CYS...DDC...GLD...LBF...LUB...
PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41890329 41610118 40410042 37960068 35110214
            34420366 34820538 35420578 36360575 37590547
            39500534 40500527 41280472