Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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755 AWUS01 KWNH 252053 FFGMPD AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-260245- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0495 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 448 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Areas affected...Northern Arizona and Southern Utah Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 252047Z - 260245Z SUMMARY... Slow-moving thunderstorms have developed along the Mogollon Rim into southern Utah associated with the thermal low. Flash flooding will be likely as these storms move over flood-sensitive areas. DISCUSSION... Slow-moving thunderstorms across the Mogollon Rim region are tapping into well above normal atmospheric moisture to produce storms capable of rainfall rates to 1.5 inches per hour. PWATs of 1 to 1.5 inches per hour are 3-4 sigma above normal for this time of year. Thus, the storms have plenty of moisture to work with as they form along the upslope areas of the Mogollon Rim in weak south to southwesterly flow. Due to the weak steering flow, the storms are very slow-moving, giving them ample time to cause locally considerable flash flooding. Flood sensitive areas such as any slot-canyons, arroyos, urban areas, will be particularly vulnerable to rapid-onset flash flooding. Note that areas downstream of the storms are likely to see flash flooding, even if it`s not raining in that area directly overhead, as canyons rout a lot of the rainwater into small spaces, resulting in rapid rises. Note: While still recovering from the recent data outage, the accompanying graphic is missing current weather data. Wegman ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF... ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38221340 38191115 37811090 37221101 34781073 34140971 33680907 32990918 32990996 33511106 34181211 34691322 35521506 36631561