Flash Flood Guidance
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357
AWUS01 KWNH 111902
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-120100-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0646
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025
Areas affected...portions of the western Carolinas
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 111900Z - 120100Z
Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to cluster
across southwest NC. As the move east-southeast, hourly rain
amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" are possible.
Discussion...Thunderstorms with heavy rain have formed across
southwest NC. While individual storms are randomly showing storm
tracks to the east to east-northeast, the whole group appears to
be propagating east-southeast along a moisture and instability
gradient within a region of 700 hPa thermal difluence where the
18z observations show some cyclonic wind shear. Precipitable
water values of 2"+ are evident, and the 12z sounding at
Greensboro NC and Peachtree City GA showed effective bulk shear of
15-20 kts, which tends to be enough for loose organization. ML
CAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg inhabits the region.
The expectation is for some additional upscale growth while the
storms move east to east-southeast at 10 kts. Hourly rain amounts
to 2.5" with local totals to 4" are possible in this area, which
given the topography and flash flood guidance values could lead to
isolated to widely scattered flash flood concerns.
Roth
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 36018216 35798122 34858060 34148113 34218215
34708291 35578305