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Flash Flood Guidance
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Issued by NWS
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546 AWUS01 KWNH 150116 FFGMPD TXZ000-NMZ000-150715- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0440 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 915 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Areas affected...Eastern NM into the TX Panhandle Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 150115Z - 150715Z SUMMARY...Slow-moving clusters of very heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to focus over areas of eastern NM and the TX Panhandle going into portions of the overnight period. DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a broken cold-topped MCS impacting areas of eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. The convection has maintained a fair degree of organization over the last couple of hours in response to ejecting height falls/shortwave energy advancing through the central/southern Rockies while interacting with a moderately unstable airmass pooled across the southern High Plains. MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg are currently in place over the TX Panhandle region. Notably divergent flow aloft associated with the approaching upstream upper-level trough and related DPVA will continue to interact with a relatively moist and unstable southeasterly low-level jet going into the overnight hours, and the expectation is that there will be a corridor of persistent low-level convergence around especially the southern flank of the convective mass to promote a general southwest to northeast axis of persistent convection. The thermodynamic environment coupled with the level of deeper layer ascent should favor pockets of 1.5 inch/hour rainfall rates continuing over the next few hours. Given the persistence of these rates, some additional storm totals going through 06Z may reach 3 to 4 inches with isolated heavier totals not out of the question if any kind of southwest to northeast oriented convective cell-training occurs. Some pockets of flash flooding cannot be ruled out and especially on an isolated basis given the expected rainfall totals. Orrison ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 35670193 35550147 35250125 34690132 33990189 33480289 33440397 33750447 34190457 34740423 35260346 35630253