100
AWUS01 KWNH 260530
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-261130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0500
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
126 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Areas affected...Southeast NEB...Northeast KS...Much of MO...Ext

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260530Z - 261130Z

SUMMARY...Merging clusters, into larger faster moving complex.
Warm advective clusters in MO may merge/train; while upstream
cells will enhance with strong moisture flux convergence and
efficient short-term rates.  Higher soil capacity and faster cell
motions may limit spot totals to 3.5".  As such, widely scattered
to scattered incidents of possible flash flooding may be possible
through morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a rather muddled/complex
convective pattern across the Mid-Mississippi/Lower Missouri River
Valley tonight; with numerous clusters of thunderstorms dotted
from central NEB, northern MO and into northeast/eastern MO.  WV
also notes a sharpening upstream shortwave across SD/central NEB
pushing the upstream cluster across the Sand Hills into the
south-central/southeast NEB.  Ahead of it remains a very warm and
conditionally unstable warm sector across far NE KS and nearly all
of MO; with broad 20-30kt 850mb southwesterly LLJ crossing
orthogonally along/ahead of the wave.

Clusters that developed/along ahead of the cold front in the
Mississippi Valley are turning south and southwest into the LLJ
and remaining unstable environment.  Given the persistent
orthogonal ascent over the resultant outflow boundaries and
increasingly northwesterly mid to upper level flow (within
increasingly diffluent pattern into SE MO/S IL), should allow for
slower downstream clusters to wait while upstream WAA clusters
expand and train along the NW to SE boundary.  These intermittent
mergers will bring short-term rates up to 2-2.25"/hr though
streaks/pockets of 2-3.5" totals may occur.  Duration/training is
no likely to remain stationary as propagation vectors will turn
southerly and southwesterly over MO bring much of central to
southwestern MO under the risk of these pockets of enhanced
totals.

However, it may take the upstream, caboose cluster with greatest
moisture flux convergence to bring the rates back up to result in
localized flash flooding conditions with rates back up to 2"/hr
with 15-30 minute totals of 1-1.5" possible.  While FFG values are
much lower across SE NEB/NW MO (1.5"/hr; 2-2.5/3hr) making
potential for exceedance higher; those multiple rounds followed by
that quick intense burst over the drier soil conditions and higher
FFG (2-2.5"/hr; 3-4"/3hr) over the Ozarks and adjacent portions of
SE KS later into the morning.  All considered widely scattered to
scattered localized flash flooding may be possible through 12z.

Gallina

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...GID...ICT...LSX...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41179690 40709445 40129238 39129075 38149032
            37199106 36659256 36769397 37309508 38049614
            39699761 40579830 41149796