Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
044 AWUS01 KWNH 120512 FFGMPD FLZ000-121000- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0426 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 112 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Areas affected...Tampa Metropolitan and surrounding areas of the west-central Florida Peninsula Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 120511Z - 121000Z Summary...A couple bands of heavy rainfall have materialized along the eastern edge of a weak low approximately 30 miles west of Tampa. Heavy rainfall could persist for several hours, causing urban/localized flash flooding. Discussion...Persistent convection has materialized along focused low-level confluence from Tampa southward to Northport over the past 1-2 hours. The cells are also focused just east of a weak surface low offshore over the far eastern Gulf of Mexico. The cells are in a very moist airmass (2+ inch PW values), with strong instability located both offshore and along and along the confluence axis. Cells were not moving very quickly, and radar estimates were already beginning to exceed 2 inches/hr beneath heavier cells as the airmass supporting the activity was also fostering efficient rain rates. Some concern exists that the convection over Tampa could persist for several hours. The weak low west of Tampa is expected to move very little tonight, and nearby confluence should persist as stronger buoyancy remains oriented along/just west of the coastline. 1-2 inch/hr rain rates should continue, and 4-6 inch totals are possible through 10Z especially if convection remains as focused as current observations suggest. These totals should exceed FFG thresholds across the discussion area (generally in the 3-inch/3-hour range), and with hydrophobic/urbanized land surfaces beneath the ongoing convection, flash flood potential is expected to increase. Cook ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 28648280 28568211 28108134 26818094 26308142 26248295 27228357