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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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810 FXUS63 KMPX 121953 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 253 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and muggy today with strong to severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening. Large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible. - Seasonable temperatures and dry weather are expected to end the week with rain returning Saturday through early Sunday. - Chances for precipitation along with warmer temperatures will persist through early next week.&& .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are continuing to make their way gradually to the east this afternoon. Visible satellite showing much clearer skies across much of western and northern MN as compared to western WI. Thus, nudged down MaxT mainly across western WI due to ongoing cloud cover. Agitated cu has already began to redevelop across western MN and is expected to continue growing in coverage through this afternoon. Across southern and southwestern MN, observations sites are reporting breezy conditions with gusts consisting of 20-30 mph. Even more noticeable, is the strength of a SW`ly LLJ which is forcing temperatures to rebound quickly into the upper 70s, upper 80s, and even a couple of 90s. Meanwhile in the upper-levels, zonal flow with a 120kt upper-level jetstreak extends from Montana all the way to the Great Lakes region allowing for plenty of divergence aloft. Closer to the surface, low pressure continues to skirt across the MN/CAN border to which remains our primary driver for additional rounds of convection this afternoon. A cold front associated with the low pressure will proceed through MN/WI as we progress through the remainder of this afternoon and evening. Instability will increase across western MN early this afternoon to values between 2000 to 3000 J/kg, and effective bulk shear between 40-50 kts. Convective redevelopment is forecast to begin as early as 3 PM but looking more likely near 5 PM onward. As of now, all storm hazard types are in play although the more favorable environment for tornadoes looks to be focused more over north- central and northeastern MN given the 50-60kts of effective shear. As development does occur, storm mode should begin as supercellular providing the tornado/hail threats and then congealing into QLCS line with potential bowing segments providing the damaging wind threat. Although one concern though we have is the results from recent CAMS. The HRRR has been trending less convection coverage except for a few isolated cells across western MN and central MN as well as delaying more widespread redevelopment later and across southeastern MN whereas the Nam3k favors a more widespread QLCS. Conditions will begin to improve as we move into Thursday and Friday. The aforementioned low pressure will vacate east while ridging builds over the western CONUS. Skies will clear out by Thursday afternoon with forecasted highs around the 80 degree mark and with Td`s in the 50s, conditions will likely not feel as sticky as compared to today. This weekend into early next week looks to be more wet than dry. A broad troughing pattern to our west will lag in progression and eject multiple shortwaves across the northern plains. As for QPF, the Weather Prediction Center QPF forecast consists much of central MN and western WI could see at least an 1" if not more of rainfall. Portions of southeastern MN could sneak over the 2" mark by the start of next week. Temperatures during this time will fluctuate between the upper 70s to mid/upper-80s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The first round of showers and storms is moving through south central Minnesota early this afternoon. The big question remains what will happen this afternoon. Confidence is low in widespread coverage of TSRA and MVFR conditions, so kept TEMPOs and PROB30s through this evening. Winds have been quite breezy behind the line of showers from this morning, but things should settle back to 20-25kts out of the south/southwest in the next hour or so. After any storms that manage to develop this evening, we will clear out with light northwest winds. KMSP...As mentioned above, there`s still plenty of uncertainty regarding the coverage of any evening storms. The window for storms looks to be between 00-04z. These storms will likely lead to MVFR/IFR conditions and could be severe. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind VRBL at 5 kts. SAT...RA/TSRA/MVFR likely, IFR possible. Wind SE 10-15 kts. SUN...Mainly VFR. Slight chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dunleavy/ALW AVIATION...Dye