957
FXUS63 KMPX 241750
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1250 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers & thunderstorms expected this morning. A Marginal Risk
  of severe weather (mainly damaging wind and hail) across
  western Wisconsin this afternoon.

- Cooler Memorial Day weekend with periodic chances for rain,
  mainly on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Now through this evening...IR satellite imagery this morning
showing a broad area of cold cloud tops extending from SW
Minnesota to northern Kansas. Beneath the cloud cover, radar
reflectivity showing an MCS that is producing quite the pre-dawn
stir in Nebraska and Iowa. Meanwhile at the Minnesota/Iowa
border, a discrete warm front is providing some buoyancy to
where convection has developed. These storms will gradually make
there way north/northeast and eventually become less organized
as they decouple away from the better forcing environment over
Iowa. Prior to sunrise, the threat of severe weather remains low
however near-term RAP Soundings showing elevated instability of
~1500 J/kg along with weak low-level shear of 30kts. Therefore
a few cells across southern MN may become strong and briefly
produce sub-severe hail and gusty winds. Rainfall is expected to
have a few hours of pause late this morning before
redevelopment occurs mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor
this afternoon. Another round of severe storms is possible for
this region but the ongoing convection early this morning will
have influence on the environment later this afternoon as noted
in the latest SPC Convective Outlook. Highest confidence for the
strongest convection will be tied to our Wisconsin counties
with the primary hazards being mainly wind and hail, however a
weak tornado cannot be ruled out given shear profiles. Rainfall
amounts remaining on track with previous thinking ranging from
0.25" to 0.50" across central MN and southern MN to western WI
seeing 0.50 to an 1.00" Temperatures today will near be near the
70 deg mark. Winds will also be increased given the passage of
this cold front. Western MN could see 30-35mph wind gusts before
decreasing this evening.

Memorial Day weekend...For the eager beavers ready to kick off
their memorial day holiday plans, overall the forecast looks
fairly decent and slightly cooler. A series of shortwaves
associated with an upper- level troughing pattern out to our
west will eject several shortwaves towards the central CONUS.
Saturday will be quiet except for increasing cloudiness in the
afternoon with temps in the low 70s. Sunday looks like "worst"
day of the weekend as likely PoPs have been introduced with the
latest NBM guidance, especially across southern Minnesota and
western Wisconsin. Sunday temps will range in the mid 60s to low
70s. Memorial Day Monday features partly cloudy skies with a
chance of showers/storms and highs in the upper 60s. According
to the MN State Climatology office, this temperature forecast
falls in slightly cooler than what we typically see for this
holiday weekend. As there have been some hot Memorial Days in
the past.

Looking into the latter half of next week, temperatures will remain
in the 70s with periodic rain chances but also potential to dry
out for a few days and slightly warmer than average
temperatures as we head into June.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

A wedge of clearing is advancing across MN while isolated showers
are beginning to develop again near EAU. Some of those showers
may become thunderstorms by 19Z. MVFR cigs across southwest MN
and the Dakotas could work into the western MN TAF sites,
especially at AXN this afternoon. Strengthening winds with gusts
exceeding 30 kts are expected through the afternoon before
easing later this evening.

KMSP...Should remain VFR through the period with some scattered
clouds between 3.5-4kft. Winds will veer more westerly this
afternoon, then back southwest Saturday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Chance -SHRA/MVFR. Wind E to NE 10 kts.
MON...VFR. Chance -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...Borghoff