Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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672 FXUS63 KMPX 061950 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 250 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain Friday night into Saturday morning. - Trending drier through next week with above-normal temperatures late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Widespread stratocumulus is in place over the region with cold cyclonic flow aloft, along with a few diurnally-driven showers across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin. This activity will continue through sunset with only a few hundredths of an inch of rain expected with any showers. Breezy northwest winds with gusts up to 40 mph will also continue through sunset as a tight pressure gradient remains over the region. The clouds will clear out & winds will weaken after sunset with mostly clear weather continuing through Friday. Daytime temperatures Friday will be warmer in the mid to upper 70s, & drier air in place will allow for RH values to approach 25-30 percent across western Minnesota, although weaker winds & moist antecedent conditions will mitigate any fire weather concerns. A weak shortwave embedded within the fast northwest flow aloft is forecast to pass over the region Friday night, with most models generating widespread showers Friday night through Saturday morning and generally rainfall amounts of 0.1-0.25". Instability is lacking with most of the precip coming overnight & during the early morning, but few rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out. After the rain moves out of the area Saturday morning, pleasant weather is in store for the rest of the weekend with plenty of sunshine, daytime temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s, & northwest winds around 10-20 mph. The trend towards drier weather generally continues through next week as ridging aloft begins to build over the central CONUS. The one outlier may be Tuesday into Wednesday, where ensemble guidance shows a shortwave briefly suppressing the building ridging and bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms over the area. Temperatures will be warming through the week as heights rise over the region, and a building heat dome over the southwest begins to extend up into the central and northern plains. Highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s to start the week, but we could see some areas reach the 90s later in the week and especially over next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Winds gusting from 30-35kts will remain the primary concern for all sites in the short term, with EAU/RNH also seeing periodic -SHRA potential, although rates will be light enough to keep VIS generally over 6sm. Wind gusts will fall back by 02-03z before returning late in the period with less intensity remaining under 30kts. BKN CIGS are likely through the gusty period but remain VFR except during periods of -SHRA, with rising bases to eventually SKC overnight. KMSP...Kept a -SHRA mention out of the TAF, however there is a non-zero chance for a shower or two at the terminal. The chance for now is less than 15 percent and should mainly result in minor visibility decreases or lowering CIGS to near MVFR. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. MON...VFR. Wind N to S 5kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Blue Earth-Brown- Chippewa-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-Renville- Sibley-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...TDH