Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
185 FXUS63 KMPX 061725 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Northwest winds today will gust as high as 30 to 40 mph. - A few showers are possible this afternoon, with better precipitation chances arriving Friday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 20243 Cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes is the main weather story for today, and the resulting gusty northwest winds, slightly cooler temperatures and a few light showers across parts of the area. A 35-kt 850 mb jet on the west side of the Great Lakes upper low will favor gusts as high as 40 mph across much of the area later this morning through the afternoon, with the highest gusts over western and southwest Minnesota where boundary layer mixing will be deeper. A few gusts could approach wind advisory criteria of 45 mph across these areas, but held off on any headlines for now since gusts should generally stay just shy of this threshold. Cold air advection will also favor some scattered light showers, mostly north and northeast of I-94 where better low-level moisture will be available. Instability will be much weaker and shallower than on Wednesday, and therefore should act against any kind of hail/gusty wind threat with this activity. Broad ridging will begin to build in from the west by Friday and bring a return to near-normal temperatures, generally in the mid 70s. A weak upper wave passing to the north Friday night will bring another round of showers and possibly a rumble of thunder or two to much of the area. Limited moisture return and instability will act against any strong storm or heavy rainfall threat. Heading into the weekend and early next week, quasizonal upper flow will maintain near/slightly below-average temperatures for much of the period before ridging gradually starts to return toward the end of the week. Weak waves embedded in this pattern will provide a few chances for rain, most notably Tuesday and again Wednesday night/Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Winds gusting from 30-35kts will remain the primary concern for all sites in the short term, with EAU/RNH also seeing periodic -SHRA potential, although rates will be light enough to keep VIS generally over 6sm. Wind gusts will fall back by 02-03z before returning late in the period with less intensity remaining under 30kts. BKN CIGS are likely through the gusty period but remain VFR except during periods of -SHRA, with rising bases to eventually SKC overnight. KMSP...Kept a -SHRA mention out of the TAF, however there is a non-zero chance for a shower or two at the terminal. The chance for now is less than 15 percent and should mainly result in minor visibility decreases or lowering CIGS to near MVFR. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. MON...VFR. Wind N to S 5kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Blue Earth-Brown- Chippewa-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-Renville- Sibley-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DPH AVIATION...TDH