303
FXUS63 KMPX 091050
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
550 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and windy today with slightly below normal temperatures.

- Warming trend during the week with chances for rain showers
  and thunderstorms Tuesday, Thursday, and next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Today and tomorrow... Under surface high pressure clear to most
clear skies with ample sun. This sun will help warm the boundary
layer today to provide thermal profiles favorable for mixing.
Therefore we will see another gusty day today with winds gusting
up into the 25 to 35 mph range this afternoon. Also with no
source for moisture advection today dew points will likely stay
in the 40s. This means low RHs and gusty winds, which typically
means a fire weather risk. Thankfully according to DNR fire
danger maps, our rainfall over the past few weeks and lack of
drought conditions is keeper fire risk low. Despite the ample
sun today northerly flow aloft will help keep high temperatures
slightly below normal in the upper 60s to mid 70s today.
Similar setup on Monday although not as windy thanks to lighter
winds aloft, so even with another good mixing day the winds are
not looking to be as high. With the 850 mb flow shifting to the
south on Monday though look for high temperatures to warm a few
degrees into the 70s.

Tuesday through Saturday... Tuesday will be warmer thanks to WAA
despite increasing cloudiness tied to the arrival of our next
system. Still tracking this shortwave trough that the past few
days of discussions have mentioned. The associated surface low
looks more likely to track to our north over far northern
Minnesota or southern Canada. The better rain chances remain to
the north as well closer to the low rather than along the cold
front that will be over us. Agreement remains strong in the
occurrence of rain, even though there is still a fair amount of
spread in the QPF values over west central Minnesota. Farther
south and east QPF values such more of a light rain event. This
larger spread is related to how long the convection over South
Dakota can hang on, as the high QPF members generally keep
thunderstorms into western Minnesota. The likely timing of this
rain moving through farther east is not favorable for
thunderstorms earlier in the day. Depending on the timing of the
frontal passage parts of eastern Minnesota into western
Wisconsin could see some thunderstorms in the afternoon or
evening. WAA should continue through Thursday with upper 70s to
mid 80s being the norm for high temperatures these days. Some
locations breaking 90 is not unreasonable with NBM upper
quartiles still showing it. Recent trends though suggest that
unless the ridge builds in deeper this is unlikely. As mentioned
in previous discussions, we look to be moving into a more
prolonged warmer and wetter pattern starting later this week.
This is thanks to a more active upper level pattern with the jet
stream over/near us and multiple short waves passing through.
This is reflected in the CPC outlooks where both the 6-10 and
8-14 favor above normal chances for temperature and
precipitation. However when you look at individual ensemble
members there remains quite a bit of spread. Overall the
clustering for rain timing remains from late Wednesday into
Thursday and the following weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 517 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

VFR expected the entire period, though a cumulus field near 5000
feet will develop late this morning and last into the early
evening. Sky coverage should increase towards our eastern
terminals (RNH, EAU). North-northwesterly winds will increase
throughout this morning following a cold frontal passage.
Strongest winds are expected to be across south-central MN where
sustained values will be around 20 knots with gusts of 25-30
knots. Winds will greatly reduce tonight to near calm with a
general northerly direction.

KMSP...North-northwesterly winds will increase to near 20 knots
sustained this morning and last into early evening. Gusts will
approach 30 knots during this timeframe. Winds will slow to near
calm/variable tonight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind NE 5 kts.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SW 10G20 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind SW 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...CTG