367
FXUS63 KMPX 090040
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
740 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable & dry weather through Monday.

- Next chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms comes
  Tuesday.

- Trending warmer through next week, with slight thunderstorm
  chances through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 728 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...Scattered showers across northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin will continue to diminish this
evening. Winds are also decreasing, and gusts should end by
sunset. Overnight expect mostly clear skies with light winds. On
Sunday, forecast soundings show northwest winds increasing once
again, so did bump up wind gusts a bit toward the higher end of
the forecast guidance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Sunny skies & pleasant weather has developed after this
morning`s rain, with dry & seasonable weather expected to
continue through the rest of the weekend & into Monday. A few
isolated rain showers are possible late this afternoon & evening
across east-central Minnesota & western Wisconsin as a weak cold
front moves through the region, but any precipitation amounts
will be negligible. Daytime temperatures will be fairly steady
through Sunday & Monday with highs int he mid 70s.

Models are in good agreement with a shortwave/surface low
skirting along the US/canada border Tuesday, with a cold front
extending southwards through the area. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop along this front, although
the extent of thunder will depend on the timing of the front
through the area. The current consensus brings the front through
primarily during Tuesday morning, which would limit the threat
for thunder & likely the rainfall amounts as well. We`ll see if
there`s any change in the timing, but for now rainfall amounts
are generally expected to be on the order of 0.25-0.5" across
northern & central MN, decreasing closer to 0.10" across
southern Minnesota where the forcing will be weaker.

Temperatures will take on a warming trend midweek into next
weekend, although not as pronounced as forecast earlier this
week as weaker ridging is now expected to build into the central
CONUS. This weaker ridging also means that heights will be
suppressed over the northern tier of the CONUS, and potentially
setting up an active "ring of fire" thunderstorm pattern jet
stream increases in speed later in the week. Models depict a
number of shortwaves developing in the increasing flow aloft &
following the northern periphery of the weak ridging aloft
right over our area. Organized Thunderstorm complexes would be
likely with any of these shortwaves, although models still vary
widely on their location & timing. Thus a few chances for
thunderstorms & potentially heavy rain look possible starting
Thursday & continuing through the weekend, although it is
unlikely we will see rain every day through that period. As
mentioned earlier, temperatures will trend warmer & more humid
with Wednesday & Thursday shaping up to be the warmest days. NBM
guidance has mid-80s for the median temperatures, although the
75th & 90th percentile guidance reaches the 90s in some areas
should the ridging build in stronger & clouds/precip not
develop. Temperatures look to cool more into the low 80s later
in the week as the jet stream strengthens & suppresses the
ridging over the area although the possibility of thunderstorm
complexes & their timing makes for low confidence in any
temperature forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 728 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions throughout. Wind gusts will decrease this
evening, and should be near 05 kts overnight. On Sunday winds
will increase during the morning, with gusts of 25 to possibly
30 kts mid day. Scattered cumulus will increase in coverage and
become broken by evening, but bases should be above 4000 ft.
Winds will start to decrease Sunday evening.

KMSP...VFR conditions throughout. Northwest winds will be light
overnight, but increase again on Sunday. A few gusts near 30 kts
are possible late Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon.
Clouds will increase during the day, but bases should remain
above 4000 ft.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind NE 5 kts.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind S 10G20 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind SW 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JRB
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...JRB