257
FXUS63 KMPX 081032
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
532 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers this morning with skies clearing by the
  afternoon.

- Warming trend next week with chances for rain Tuesday and
  Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Today through Monday... Isolated to scattered rain showers will
continue to move from west to east this morning associated with
a shortwave trough. As showers have remained scattered rather
than widespread high QPF is not expected, but there could be
bursts of heavier rain especially across southern Minnesota.
Limited instability has generally prevented thunderstorms, but
there have been some occasional lightning strikes across parts
of southern Minnesota and these are also where some of the
heavier rain has been occurring. Based on radar analysis this
morning there are some heavier showers along the eastern and
southern edge of the area of lighter rain. As temperatures rise
later this morning our dry air problem that lead to a later
start time will return and help bring this round of rain to an
end. As we dry out later today we should see sunny skies return
later this morning into the afternoon from west to east. These
clear to mostly clear skies should continue into Sunday and
Monday as higher pressure moves in. With 850 mb winds remaining
more northerly the lack of WAA will limit heating despite the
ample sun such that highs should be in the 70s. So more spring
weather before the more summer like weather arrives later in the
week.

Tuesday through Friday... What remains clear for this period is
the warm up with good ensemble agreement that it will start
feeling more and more like summer as the week goes on. This
means our highs in the 70s this weekend bump up to highs in the
80s by midweek. The side that remains less certain is the
moisture side both in dew point/precipitable water and rain. In
general there are two periods that have chances for rain and
maybe thunderstorms:  Tuesday and Thursday. Tuesday looks like
another shortwave trough, but the uncertainty here is how far
south it gets. This could end up being more of a northern
Minnesota into Canada type of event, but the front trailing
farther south should provide at least some rain chances down
here. Looking across the ensemble guidance this is reflected
with areas like the Twin Cities seeing lower mean QPF with
large deviations while there is higher QPF with smaller
deviations over most of northern Minnesota. Yet another
shortwave passes on Thursday although the spread is much higher
here with more ensemble members with no QPF and more ensemble
members with higher QPF. So overall very uncertain chances for
rain here at this time. Late Wednesday into Thursday still
looks to be the best WAA of the week. With one of these two days
likely being the warmest day of the week as the upper quartile
max temperatures in NBM is around 90. Despite temperatures
looking more like summer the dew points do not, so heat index
values remain around air temperatures. Some cooling, but not
much, on Friday behind the cold front and a return to northwest
flow at 850 mb.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 517 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Scattered showers will continue moving east, eventually leaving
our WI terminals by around 14Z. Regardless, VFR is expected the
entire TAF period as rainfall rates have not been heavy enough
and clouds will clear out after precip leaves. Variable to
northeasterly winds will become northwesterly by mid-morning.
Speeds will increase to near 10 knots this afternoon and slow to
near or under 5 knots tonight.

KMSP...Rain showers should exit east of MSP by 13Z this morning.
VFR expected the entire period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SE 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...CTG