Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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538 FXUS63 KMPX 102033 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 333 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and a few thunderstorms expected tonight into Tuesday morning. Redevelopment of a few strong thunderstorms possible in eastern MN/WI Tuesday afternoon. - Warm and muggy Wednesday with strong to severe thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and evening. - Seasonable temperatures to end the week with precip chances returning next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Very pleasant with mostly sunny skies, light winds, and temperatures reaching the low 70s across many areas this afternoon. A few high clouds were observed over northwestern MN and making their way eastward. Cloud coverage will increase as the night progresses as a shortwave consisting of showers and thunderstorms approaches from our west. Timing remains consistent with the previous discussion where western MN precip develops around 1 AM, MN/WI border by 7 AM, and departing western WI early afternoon. Another batch of thunderstorm development remains in the CAM guidance. Strength and intensity will greatly depend on cloud cover following in the wake of earlier precip. Should enough surface heating occur between breaks in this cloud cover, 500-1000 j/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40kts of bulk shear could become available to generate scattered strong thunderstorms. Given the elevated instability, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has place a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms along the I-35 corridor and east into Wisconsin with wind and hail being the primary threats. The forecasted QPF with this system will range between one to two tenths of an inch, although a few areas could see closer to a half inch where updrafts are strongest. Wednesday forecast looks to provide us a good taste of summer. It will be a hot and muggy day across the northern plains where temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s and even a few 90s (especially across western MN). Accompanying the warmer air, southerly flow will also increase surface dew points into the 60s. Zonal flow aloft will advect in a shortwave that develops over the intermountain west. As of now by tomorrow afternoon, an environment that consists of 2000-3000 MLCAPE, 40-50 bulk shear, and PWATs between 1.5-1.8" will create another chance of severe weather Wednesday afternoon and evening. Much of central and southern MN, and western WI have been placed under a slight risk (level 1 of 2) for severe thunderstorms by the SPC. The initial severe threat will begin as supercells capable of producing large (and potentially very large ~near 2.0") hail across western and central MN. Upscale growth with this system is expected as the evening progresses and therefore the initial hail threat will become a wind threat over eastern MN and western WI. Another hazard will be torrential rainfall as PWATs range between 1.5-1.8" in the forecast guidance. Flash flooding is not concern other than small streams and the typical urban areas. QPF with this event looks to be the better performer than the preceding Tuesday system with accumulations between a half inch to an inch of rain. Highest amounts will linger around southeastern MN. For the rest of the forecast period, Thursday will hang onto slight PoPs as a secondary frontal boundary advances across the northern plains. Temperatures will return to the lower 80s. Friday will be another beautiful day as skies look to be mostly clear as ridging will be at its max over the central CONUS. By Saturday, the ridge progs east and and another shortwave will bring likely showers and thunder Saturday night into Sunday. Forecast guidance at the h850 levels holding onto the idea of a "ring of fire" over the east coast which will place MN/WI on the western periphery. This meaning highs could reach into the upper 80s and low 90s Sunday into Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 VFR to start for all TAF sites with generally light/variable winds. Winds will eventually become SE later this afternoon with speeds close to 10kts. Winds will continue to steadily veer to S overnight then to SW during the day Tuesday with speeds increasing to near 15G20kts. Clouds will increase late this afternoon, with upper level ceilings developing this evening that will lower to the mid-levels overnight. Rain will develop over western MN overnight and press eastward over eastern MN around or shortly after daybreak then spread into western WI. Very little in the way of CB/TS expected overnight into tomorrow thus have kept its mention out of this TAF set. Once the morning rain ends, additional scattered convection looks to develop Tuesday afternoon so some isolated/scattered CB/TS is possible then. At this point, have only gone the "chance" route with MSP. With the rain tonight into tomorrow, MVFR conditions are likely during and shortly after until partial afternoon clearing. KMSP...Light/variable winds will persist into late afternoon, then winds pick up from the SE this evening through tonight in the 5-10kts range. Winds then continue veering to SW during the day tomorrow with speeds nudging up to 10-15kts. Showers move into the area prior to daybreak, with best timing of rain at MSP right around sunrise and continuing through late morning. Some heavier batches of rain look to bring visibility into MVFR range late morning. After this morning rain diminishes, scattered SHRA/TSRA will develop in the afternoon, which could impact MSP later on Tuesday. Uncertainty as to the timing/placement forces just a PROB30 mention at this point so this will be adjusted in later TAFs. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...Mainly VFR. MVFR/-TSRA likely late. Wind SW 10 kts. THU...Mainly VFR. Slight chance MVFR/-SHRA. Wind NW 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dunleavy AVIATION...JPC