Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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621 FXUS63 KMPX 120510 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1210 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and muggy tomorrow with strong to severe thunderstorms expected. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible. - Seasonable temperatures and dry weather is expected to end the week with precip chances returning Saturday. - Chances for precip with warmer temperatures look to continue through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Rain from this morning has cleared the area as of early this afternoon with cloud cover going with it. Rainfall amounts were generally around 0.1-0.25" across the area. Some diurnal Cu has popped up across central and western Minnesota, but expecting very little in the way of redevelopment of showers and storms this evening due to very little instability. Tomorrow will be a very different story. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon, but there are still some questions when it comes to the timing and coverage. As mentioned in the previous discussion, CAMs are highlighting some early morning elevated convection as a 35- 40kt LLJ noses into southwestern Minnesota. How this plays out will likely impact tomorrow afternoon`s severe chances. That being said, we look to recover by the afternoon with daytime heating and strong WAA and moisture being advected in from the southwest. A shortwave will kick through central Minnesota during the early afternoon with a strong cold front expected to follow during the evening into the overnight hours. Current thinking is that the earlier morning convection will continue/restrengthen with the shortwave in the early afternoon, with an area of strong to severe thunderstorms across southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. A cold front back across the Dakotas and far western Minnesota will be the focus for another round of storms later in the afternoon, likely further north across central Minnesota. Ahead of this front, MLCAPE values of 1500- 2500 J/kg will build in as dew points climb into the the mid to upper 60s. All severe modes are possible with both rounds of storms. Hodographs look supportive of tornadoes during the later afternoon and evening hours before storms likely grow upscale and turn to more of a damaging wind threat. Thursday and Friday will be cooler and drier behind the front before precip chances ramp up again late Friday night. A cutoff low over the southwest CONUS is expected to move into the Central Plains with another surge of moisture streaming northward. PWs on Saturday will surpass 1.6"-1.8", setting the stage for a heavy rain threat. Sunday will be hot and humid as we find ourselves in the warm sector of this system, but shower chances will be lower than on Saturday. Continued chances for showers and storms are expected through the first half of next week with multiple shortwaves moving along the top of a ridge. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1158 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 VFR conditions overnight, but showers and thunderstorms will impact the TAF sites at times on Wednesday. There is high confidence that an area of showers will move in from South Dakota early Tuesday morning. There is a chance that it could produce thunder. Confidence is lower the rest of the day, but this area of precipitation will become more intense by late morning and could produce severe weather during the afternoon and into the evening. There is also a chance for multiple rounds, which is why confidence is low in the timing. KMSP...This is lower confidence forecast for KMSP. There is uncertainty with when the morning showers will arrive at KMSP, and if there will be thunder. Once they move out, there is potential for a second round of storms later in the day. Timing should become more apparent by the 12Z TAF issuance, but for now the potential remains for a long window of TSRA. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind NW 10G20 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind VRBL at 5 kts. SAT...RA/TSRA/MVFR likely, IFR possible. Wind SE 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dye AVIATION...JPC