044
FXUS63 KMPX 230554
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1254 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Evening chances for showers and thunderstorms diminishing.

- Warmer temperatures return briefly tomorrow with a chance of
  showers and thunderstorms overnight ahead of a cold front.

- Mild temperatures are expected through the holiday weekend
  with only low chances of showers into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 657 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

The chance for lightning is near zero the rest of the evening as
thunderstorm chances are quickly diminishing. Showers will also
continue to decrease in coverage this evening and westerly winds
will become light and out of the south.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

We`re enjoying a little break in the active weather of the past two
days as yesterday`s system spins to the north over Ontario.
Rainfall totals across the area generally range from 2-4 inches
since Monday, with lower totals out west. Breezy west/northwest
flow is keeping temperatures in the low to mid 60s early this
afternoon with a nice diurnal Cu field across the area. A few
isolated showers have popped up over the last hour or so across
central Minnesota and western Wisconsin with the 500mb trough
still lingering in the area. These showers will remain fairly
isolated in nature, but may produce some small hail and gusty
winds before diminishing by sunset. Southerly flow returns for
tomorrow ahead of a low over the Dakotas, allowing for WAA and
moisture to advect back into the region. Temperatures will make
a run at 80 ahead of the cold front, but the timing of the
frontal passage looks to be late Thursday night, missing the
best window of instability. Still, a few stronger storms with
hail and gusty winds are possible tomorrow night into early
Friday from western into central Minnesota with most thunder
potential decreasing by the time the line reaches eastern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin Friday morning. QPF amounts are
on the order of a quarter to a half inch, with locally higher
amounts possible.

Heading into the holiday weekend, temperatures look to be in the
upper 60s to low 70s with daily slight chances for showers as an
upper low is parked north of us. This weekend does not look to be a
washout by any means at this point, with very low QPF amounts
overall. A stronger embedded wave looks to swing through on Sunday,
which will lead to the highest chances for scattered showers and
storms, particularly across the southern half of the forecast area.
It`s not until sometime Tuesday that this low finally moves out and
we see slightly warmer temperatures and drier conditions return
by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

VFR throughout this TAF duration. Mainly high clouds through
this afternoon, then mid-level ceilings develop over western
and central MN by this evening. Showers and thunderstorms
likely to develop overnight tonight through Friday morning, but
this will be addressed in more detail in upcoming TAF sets.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR/MVFR with -SHRA/TSRA likely. Wind S 10-20 kts,
becoming W 15-25 kts during the afternoon.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind E 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JRB
DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...JPC