Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 212343

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
643 PM CDT Wed Apr 21 2021

Issued at 643 PM CDT Wed Apr 21 2021

Updated to include 00Z avaition discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Wed Apr 21 2021

The main messages of the short term forecast is for dry and sunny
conditions on Thursday, with elevated fire weather conditions
developing due to low humidity. Also, confidence has increased for
some rain showers to lift up from the southwest and move through
Friday morning.

Early afternoon satellite imagery together with surface obs showed
cool conditions across the region, with another episode of afternoon
diurnal cumulus clouds. These clouds will dissipate overnight as
warm air advection that is currently ongoing over the eastern
Dakotas makes its way across Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Thursday into Friday morning - High pressure will lead to mostly
sunny skies, and the warmer temperatures aloft should keep the
clouds from developing. On Thursday night a shortwave trough will
race eastward and this will lead to clouds and some precipitation.
Models are in good agreement with light amounts, so have raised the
pops for Friday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Wed Apr 21 2021

The long term will start off cool with a couple of chances for
precipitation, followed by a warm up, then a potentially more
significant system next week.

Showers will be working their way through the CWA and exiting to the
northeast on Friday, and any additional accumulations should be very
light. With cloudy skies hanging on through the day high
temperatures will be several degrees cooler than Thursday with highs
in the low to mid 50s. A cold front then moves through from
northwest to southeast Friday night with a slight chance of showers.
Temperatures behind the front will be a little cooler with highs on
Saturday in the mid 40s to low 50s. On Saturday, surface high
pressure and ridging building in from the west will lead to
decreasing clouds, but highs only reach the upper 40s to low 50s
with northwest winds gusting to 20 to 25 MPH. Low temperatures
Sunday morning Will fall to near Freezing. Late in the weekend the
ridge moves off to the east and the flow aloft becomes southwest
which will lead to a more active week. There could be a few showers
on Sunday with the initial push of WAA. Lows Sunday morning look to
be near freezing, so there could be some snow initially, but it
looks like a quick changeover to rain as temperatures rise. Better
WAA on Monday will raise high temperatures into the mid 60s to mid
70s. Some light showers are possible on Monday with the push of WAA
along with a slight chance of some thunder. The better chance for
more significant rain comes on Tuesday and Wednesday as a system
emerges out of the Rockies. There is not much agreement yet between
the models on the evolution of this system. However, there is
general agreement that we will have some impacts from this system.
While any severe weather with this system looks unlikely, if better
instability is able to push north, chances would increase.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Wed Apr 21 2021

The upper trough centered over the Great Lakes will shift east
through the period, allowing ridging to build in from the west.
Surface high centered to our south will slowly move east. We should
see diurnal cu dissipate this evening, although where it has
flattened out beneath the inversion over the eastern portion of the
area it will take a while to break up. Regardless, VFR conditions are
expected, with few clouds expected on Thursday.

KMSP...No significant concerns. Main issue will be the timing of when
VFR ceilings will scatter out tonight. Could see them linger a bit
longer than forecast, but went with consensus of the guidance.

Thursday overnight...MVFR expected late, IFR possible with a chance
of rain. Southwest wind around 10 kt.
Friday...MVFR expected, IFR possible early with a chance of rain.
Southwest wind less than 10 kt.
Friday night...MVFR possible. Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming
Saturday...MVFR possible. Northwest wind around 10 kt becoming north.
Saturday night...VFR. Variable wind around 5 kt becoming southeast.
Sunday...MVFR possible with a chance of rain and snow showers.
Southeast wind 10 to 20 kt.




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