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000
FXUS63 KMPX 071146
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
646 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

Updated to include 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Small chances for thunderstorms in western and central MN near a
  weak front in the eastern Dakotas today.

- Additional scattered thunderstorms possible Friday-Saturday with
  the passage of another weak cold front.

- Near normal temperatures expected through Monday then warmer
  temperatures expected for next week.

A nearly north-south oriented quasi-stationary cold front over the
Dakotas/MN border is aiding in keeping showers/thunderstorms going
over western MN early this morning. Aside from a few rumbles of
thunder and brief mod/hvy rain, these southward-drifting cells will
be of little consequence. The front will only drift westward slightly
during the day today, owing to the expansion of high pressure over
Hudson Bay spreading S and SW across the Great Lakes and into the
Upper Midwest. Diurnally-driven showers/thunderstorms will expand a
bit in western MN through this afternoon, but the retreat of the
front will minimize the coverage of such convection to far western
portions of the WFO MPX coverage area. There is a small area of
western MN that is included in the SWODY1 Marginal Risk area, but it
is highly conditional in terms of coverage/timing with no real
organization to any of the storms. Nevertheless, a couple/few storms
could be capable of strong wind gusts and/or larger hail around 1"
in diameter. With the westward movement of the front tonight and the
loss of daytime heating, any afternoon convection will steadily
dissipate this evening, allowing for dry conditions tonight through
Thursday with high pressure in control. This respite will not last
long as cold front will drop southeast from central Canada during the
day Thursday, moving across MN/WI during the day Friday-Saturday.
Additional scattered showers/thunderstorms will be in the forecast
during this time, particularly during the daytime hours with
diurnally-driven storms the main issue. Not looking for any organized
severe weather threats but a few strong-severe storms cannot be ruled
out. Once the weekend front shifts to the south by Saturday evening,
dry/stable high pressure will settle over the Upper Midwest Saturday
night and remain in place through early next week, promoting several
days without rain for the start of next week.

As for temperatures, the lack of any appreciable airmass change
today-Saturday spells very little day-to-day changes in temperatures
for all of the Upper Midwest for the rest of this week. Highs will
generally run in the upper 70s (western WI) to the mid 80s (western
MN). The main issue as to whether advertised highs are realized is
the amount of high clouds, or more to the point, upper level smoke,
may filter the insolation reaching the surface, thus potentially
bumping temperatures down a couple-few degrees. With the passage of
the cold front over the weekend, Sunday will be the coolest day in
the forecast period, with highs in the 70s area-wide. However, a
warming trend will commence early next week with a deeper southerly
flow returning to the Mississippi River Valley, bringing temperatures
back to the mid 80s to near 90 across the coverage area.

Another issue of note for today will be elevated fire weather
conditions over mainly the WI portion of our coverage area for today.
The driest portion of the incoming eastern Canadian high pressure
area will move across WI today, nudging RH values into the mid-upper
20s (and even some lower 20s should enough pure sunshine reach the
surface to maximize temperatures and minimize RH values). Relative
humidity values will likely bottom out around 25%, and potentially
closer to 20% in more open areas, with highs into the 75-78 degree
range. While wind speeds will remain somewhat tame in the 10-15mph
range, dry fuels with the temp/RH conditions will lead to elevated
fire weather conditions. Thus, in collab with surrounding offices,
have opted to issue a Special Weather Statement addressing the fire
weather conditions for today.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

VFR conditions likely for all sites throughout this TAF duration.
That said, small chances for SHRA/TSRA still are present for far
western MN TAF sites, thus KAXN-KRWF may still be susceptible to
precipitation through the daylight hours today. However, outside of
the ongoing activity near KRWF at initialization time,
confidence in timing/placement of any convection beyond this morning
is rather low so have omitted its mention at this point and let radar
trends dictate inclusion as needed later on. Ceilings around 10 kft
will prevail through today and most of tonight, especially at the MN
TAF sites. Winds will run E to SE with speeds 5-10kts.

KMSP...No mention of precip for this round once again, as activity
appears focused to the west. VFR for the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...Mainly VFR. Chance PM TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
Sat...Mainly VFR. Chance PM TSRA/MVFR. Wind NE 10-15 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind NE 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...JPC