Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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130
FXUS63 KMPX 240549
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1249 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather for the second half of the work week.

- Much warmer this weekend (upper 80s/low 90s), with the return
  of shower and thunderstorm chances. Very unsettled in the
  extended forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

The organized complex of morning convection has drifted south into
Iowa early this afternoon. Observations reveal that a cold front
extends from the Lac Qui Parle/Swift county line to the southeast
towards Mankato, extending further east towards Rochester. Locations
to the south of this boundary will be the focus point for any
renewed convection in the coming hours. RAP forecast soundings and
mesoanalysis reveal 1500+ j/kg of MLCAPE and sufficient, though weak
shear across this area. A few stronger cells will be possible mainly
southwest of the Minnesota River, however the threat for severe
weather appears low. The remainder of the day will be dry for most
locations north of the frontal boundary, with just a slight chance
for an isolated shower. Filtered sunshine will be the theme and any
clearing in the skies will likely appear hazy given a lingering
concentration of wildfire smoke aloft. Temperatures are on track to
reach the low to mid 80s across western Minnesota and the mid to
upper 70s across eastern MN and western WI.

The cold front will drift south over the next few days, followed by
the arrival of expansive surface high pressure across the Upper
Midwest into the Great Lakes that will bring quiet weather for the
remainder of the work week. Areas of patchy fog may develop
overnight, which appears largely dependent on where skies clear
(most favorable across southwestern MN). Any fog that develops will
mix out of the picture quickly Wednesday morning. Temperatures are
forecast to gradually warm each of the next few days, with highs in
the mid to upper 70s Wednesday, the low 80s Thursday, and into the
mid 80s on Friday. Comfortable levels of humidity will gradually
increase by late week, however the more notable heat and humidly
will hold off until the weekend.

Late July heat, humidity, and storm chances will return to the
forecast starting on Saturday. Forecast highs climb into the upper
80s/low 90s Saturday & Sunday, along with dew points forecast to
reach the upper 60s and perhaps the low 70s by the end of the
weekend. The eastward expansion of the upper level ridge and quick
suppression of the ridge due to an incoming potent upper low
adds uncertainty into just how warm it will get, but leaning on
the blended guidance seems like a reasonable call at this time.
The eastward progression of the aforementioned upper low will
bring the return of shower and thunderstorm chances. For now,
most of Saturday looks dry, with only slight chance PoPs in
place across western Minnesota. The more likely scenario for
scattered to perhaps even widespread convection will be Sunday
as a cold front moves through.

Global ensemble guidance is in strong agreement that a 590s dm
ridge centered over the central Great Plains will amplify early
next week. Locally, the extended guidance has trended warm, with
upper 80s and low 90s sticking around through much of next
week. Along with the warmth, pattern recognition resembles the
classic Summer "ring of fire" where multiple rounds of storm
complexes move around the periphery of the ridge along the
instability axis. As we`ve seen over the past few weeks, this
can often mean the potential for a bowing MCS/damaging wind
threat so that will be something to watch heading into next
week. This is simply a "heads up" that things appear to be
trending in a more active direction from the second half of the
weekend into much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

VFR with slight potential of MVFR fog this morning. Cloud
cover continues to make its way southward. RWF is the only site that
has yet to completely clear but should improve over the next
couple of hours. Fog is still possible to develop across most
sites around sunrise however, best confidence for seeing fog is
EAU. Any sites that do manage to develop fog, should mix out
between 13-15z at the latest. Canadian wildfire smoke will
remains elevated but slightly less prevalent across our eastern
sites per latest HRRR/RAP smoke guidance. Easterly winds
continue between 5-10kts this period.

KMSP...No additional concerns, aside for the potential of fog
between 10-12z. Confidence was too low to include a tempo but
something to monitor over the next few hours.


/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind SE 5kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 10-15kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind S 15G25kts.
&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...Dunleavy