Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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474 FXUS63 KMPX 240459 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1159 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Tonight a small chance of rain (10 to 20%) west of I-35. - Temperatures will warm to near 80 by Wednesday and last through the weekend. - The dry September continues. Chances are low in any widespread rainfall the rest of the month. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 216 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...Early afternoon satellite imagery with radar and surface obs showed an area of showers across the central Dakotas that was driven by an upper level wave. There was little moisture with this system, so much of the reflectivity wasn`t hitting the ground, and where it was raining, it was light. Later this afternoon, showers should increase in coverage as they approach the eastern Dakotas, but they`ll fall apart toward sunset as they approach western MN. SPC has the general thunder risk to the west of the MN/Dakota border. In addition to losing the instability, a large upper level wave will crash over the trough, which will lead to subsidence so showers should dry up by the time they reach eastern MN and western WI. This will lead to another dry day on Tuesday. WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Temperatures will warm a bit and by Wednesday highs will be in the upper 70s to near 80. There are some small chances for rain (10 to 20%) across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin which account for the phasing of some tropical moisture from the system that will move up the Gulf of Mexico, and a cutoff upper level low that will develop over the Ozarks from the breaking ridge up stream. This is a low confidence forecast, so did not change the blended forecast guidance. However, the most likely outcome is for the weather to remain dry through the weekend into next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 VFR with light winds through the period. These winds will shift through the day as a boundary passes through. Despite the winds shifts winds should be light enough the have little aviation impact. There is a line of very light showers moving across western Minnesota this morning. This line will continue to slowly track east through the morning. VFR will continue during the rain. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind W 5kts. THU...VFR. Wind SE 5kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NE 5kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...WFO MPX AVIATION...NDC