561
FXUS63 KMPX 252015
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
315 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers are expected tonight, but precip amounts will be
  light and no severe weather is expected.

- Next periods of unsettled weather will be Thursday night into
  Friday and again Monday into Tuesday next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

For most of us this afternoon and evening, the weather is expected
to remain calm and quiet with temperatures cooling into the
upper 50s and low 60s tonight. Currently, a surface boundary is
acting as the dividing line for scattered cloud cover across
southern MN whereas clear skies prevail elsewhere. A subtle
shortwave continues to move in from Alberta tonight into the
pre-dawn hours which will interact with this boundary. Scattered
rain showers are possible mainly across western MN with
expected QPF ranging to less than a tenth of an inch.

By Wednesday, upper-level ridging begins to build in from our west.
Aside form patchy afternoon clouds tomorrow afternoon, Wednesday
looks to be a beautiful day and not as humid. NW`ly flow will aid in
reducing high temperatures to the low to mid 70s, with dew points in
the 50s. Thursday looks to be a replica of Wednesday`s
temperature forecast however southerly flow returns in the mid-
levels. Dew points will begin to creep back to near 60 degrees
with increasing cloud cover from the southwest throughout the
day. A shortwave across the intermountain west encroaches on
the Dakotas and is progged to track across the international
border Thursday night into Friday. Central MN continues to be
saddled between two >1" QPF maximas to our north along the Int`l
border and south of the MN/IA border. Moisture content
associated with this system brings PWATs as high as 1.8" which
does introduce the potential for some heavy rainfall. A few of
the forecast soundings do hint at some meager instability Friday
afternoon but severe weather is not anticipated. Expected
rainfall amounts will range between a quarter to a half inch
with this system. Although given the progressive nature of this
system, training rainfall is not expected which does help
rivers continue to recover from flooding.

This weekend looks to be ship shape with mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. Early
next week remains our next period to watch as troughing to our
NW become negatively tilted. Stronger convection is possible
along with another opportunity for heavier rainfall. As
mentioned in the previous discussion, the system doesn`t look to
linger around to pester any fourth of July activities.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

There are two main question regarding the TAF period, with the
first being how to handle the isolated weak showers present at
the start of the period. For now, most of it has remained virga
thus kept all the sites dry, however MKT/RWF have the best
chance for a brief period of -SHRA which will likely be too weak
to impact visibility. The second question is regarding a
secondary wave arriving roughly 10z through 18z Wednesday, and
how this wave will impact both CIGS and -SHRA potential. Kept
all TAF locations dry for now, however brief MVFR or low VFR
conditions are possible with a bit of increased forcing for low
level clouds. As we see more CAM agreement in subsequent TAF
issuance, we will hone in on whether or not to keep things dry.

KMSP...As mentioned above, the main consideration for the 18z
TAF period is whether or not to introduce SCT/BKN035 clouds from
about 13-18z tomorrow, and also whether or not those clouds
would include -SHRA. Omitted both for now due to disparity in
model guidance, however we could be adding in either or both as
we get closer with some better consensus.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR, MVFR/SHRA late. Wind SE 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA. Wind SE 10-15kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...TDH